The Iran war has not triggered new industrial capacity. It has only deepened a shortage that already existed. According to a new RUSI analysis, even after the Trump administration met with defense industry executives on March 6, no production surge has occurred - because no funded orders have been placed.

The finding, published by researchers Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, and Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek and reported by "Hvylya", describes an industrial base paralyzed by a gap between political urgency and contractual reality. Industry leaders are reluctant to increase production without firm commitments, having been "burned" in the past by promises of funding that never materialized.

The problem runs deeper than contracting speed. The sole American factory for high explosives, the Holston Army Ammunition Plant, has not received orders to increase production. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further complicated upstream supply chains for vital materials like sulfur. Multiple reports had already warned before the conflict of a "deteriorating US defence industrial base" and "empty bins in a wartime environment."

Washington has invoked emergency authorities to accelerate arms packages to Gulf partners, but the authors argue this is a stopgap, not a solution. Emergency powers can speed up contracting, but they cannot accelerate motor curing times, seeker production rates, or the sub-tier fragility behind advanced electronics and energetics.

The analysis frames this paralysis through what it calls the "iron triangle" of the defense industrial base: munitions can be produced well, quickly, or cheaply - but never all three. Surging production under wartime pressure forces a sacrifice of "cheap." When the U.S. Navy needed to replenish $1 billion in munitions expended during Red Sea operations, the bill came to over $2 billion. Applying that ratio, the $26 billion already spent in Iran will likely cost over $50 billion to replace.

The fundamental bottleneck is not willpower but physics and economics. Complex munitions cannot be rushed off a line the way simple ammunition can. Replacing the 500-plus Tomahawk missiles already fired will take at least five years under current production capacity.

Previously, "Hvylya" examined how the world's largest oil producer remains hostage to a single maritime chokepoint.