Taiwan remains the single most dangerous flashpoint in the US-China relationship - and the risk of confrontation is very high unless both sides agree that the status quo is the best achievable outcome for now.
In a new Foreign Affairs essay, Yale historian Odd Arne Westad has argued that any Trump-Xi summit must address the island's future directly, "Hvylya" reports. The vast majority of Chinese citizens believe Taiwan is a part of China that the United States unfairly but determinedly keeps from its motherland - an impression that relentless CCP propaganda has helped create.
Westad's prescription is blunt: both leaders need to agree that neither Taiwanese independence nor a Chinese takeover is a viable option short of great-power war. Without that mutual understanding, miscalculation becomes almost inevitable.
The Taiwan question sits atop a broader set of economic grievances. China's leadership views US export controls, investment restrictions, and pressure on allies as a campaign of economic containment - similar to what Germany believed it faced before World War I, or Japan before World War II. Westad warned that if Chinese citizens conclude Washington is trying to prevent their economy from growing, the risk of economic resentment spilling over into military confrontation rises sharply.
At the same time, Westad emphasized that the economic dimension of the relationship need not be zero-sum. China's population is four times larger than America's, and its GDP per capita is only one-fifth of the US level. China must still find room for economic growth to satisfy its people's aspirations. The solution, the historian argued, lies in stable trade regulations, open financial markets, and technological exchanges restricted only by clear and demonstrable national security needs.
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