The cost of the Iran war is being measured not just in dollars but in something harder to replace: the industrial slack that underpins American deterrence everywhere else. A new RUSI analysis warns that every interceptor and Tomahawk cruise missile drawn from a finite, slow-to-replenish stockpile directly reduces the U.S. ability to deter and defend in other theaters - including protecting Taiwan and supporting Ukraine.

The authors, writing for RUSI and reported by "Hvylya", call this dynamic a "second-theatre tax." The coalition can continue fighting Iran, they argue, but with increased risk to forces already in theater. The bigger danger, however, is what continued combat does to credibility and readiness elsewhere.

The figures make the dilemma concrete. Coalition forces have already fired more than 500 Tomahawk missiles in the first 16 days. Replacing them will likely take at least five years, given the complexity of the weapons and the difficulty of surging production. Meanwhile, the coalition has burned through interceptors at a pace that puts THAAD and ATACMS/PrSM stocks roughly a month from depletion.

This is where alliance politics becomes industrial politics, the analysis argues. If the United States prioritizes replenishing its own stocks, it will slow deliveries to partners who have already paid for weapons - creating what the authors describe as a credibility dilemma. Allies are already signaling concern that an American focus on its own military replenishment will delay their orders.

The strategic consequence is hard to ignore. China controls most of the world's supply of gallium and germanium - critical inputs for advanced munitions - and has imposed export restrictions since 2023. A prolonged Iran campaign that depletes Western stockpiles while Beijing restricts the materials needed to rebuild them would hand China a strategic advantage without firing a shot. The precariousness of this situation may explain why President Trump has already floated winding down the conflict, noting it "could take years to replace what was expended in only 16 days."

Previously, "Hvylya" analyzed how the growing rift between Washington and European allies could give Putin an opening in the Baltics.