Western hopes of driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing are a fantasy, according to a major Carnegie Endowment assessment that describes the Russia-China relationship as structurally irreversible. Chinese technology has become a critical enabler of the Russian defense industry, and with European economic ties severed, Russia's dependence on China has only deepened, "Hvylya" reports, citing the analysis by Eugene Rumer.
The partnership serves both countries' strategic interests in ways that make separation irrational for either side. Their geopolitical priorities are complementary: China focuses primarily on the Pacific theater, Russia on Europe. "Chinese support enables Russia's confrontation with Europe and the United States and therefore distracts their resources and attention from their competition with China," Rumer writes.
Since 2022, the economic dimension has become structurally important. With ties to Europe broken and trade with China continuing to grow, Russia has grown "heavily dependent on China," the assessment states. Chinese technology serves as a critical enabler of Russia's defense industry - a relationship that will only deepen as Moscow faces a post-war rearmament challenge with diminished access to Western technology and capital.
Russia, in turn, provides value to Beijing. Moscow will pursue policies "aimed at undermining the United States and its allies and interests" - including supplying China and North Korea with advanced military capabilities and technologies. This makes Russia a useful geopolitical partner that keeps Washington distracted from the Pacific, which is Beijing's primary strategic concern.
"Expecting Russia to break with China remains a profoundly unrealistic proposition," Rumer concludes. For the United States and Europe, the implication is clear: policy must be built around the assumption of a durable Sino-Russian axis, not hopes of fracturing it. The Carnegie assessment argues that regardless of how U.S.-European relations develop, "a shared understanding and coordinated efforts to limit Russia's malign global reach would be in the interests of both Washington and Brussels."
Also read: "Truly Amusing": Chinese Commentators Mock US Ability to Challenge Beijing After Iran.