The Islamic Republic of Iran has the support of just 10% to 20% of its population, and those loyal supporters "are convinced they are going to defeat the U.S. in this war." They will not, according to Ali M. Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews.
As reported by "Hvylya", Ansari laid out the scale of Iran's compounding crises in a wide-ranging interview with The Wall Street Journal. "The vast majority of people are struggling. The political system is hated. The economic system isn't delivering," he said. Salaries "no longer meet the basic needs of life."
Beyond the political and economic collapse, Ansari pointed to an environmental disaster - the regime has drained the water table - layered on top of an international crisis that now includes a direct military confrontation. "Every crisis you can think of, the Islamic Republic is facing," he said.
When confronted with the argument that the regime remains strong and stable, the historian was blunt. "It can't be that strong and stable because people are rebelling every few years, and on a scale the regime deems existential." The accelerating cycle of protests - in 2019, 2022, and January 2026 - each more intense than the last, suggests a system under mounting pressure rather than one in control.
The regime's domestic weakness contrasts sharply with its international posture. Having lost European sympathy by siding with Russia in Ukraine and refusing to make a plausible offer when President Trump returned to office, Tehran now finds itself isolated and under military attack with a population that overwhelmingly wants it gone.
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