The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the decimation of Iran's leadership has created an unprecedented power vacuum. Washington's stated hope is that the Iranian people will fill it with democratic governance. The most likely outcome, however, points in a very different direction.
Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, outlines two probable scenarios in Foreign Affairs, as reported by "Hvylya". Neither involves democracy.
The first and more probable scenario is "more overt control by a Revolutionary Guard that has already become a preeminent political and economic actor under Khamenei." The IRGC has spent decades building a parallel state - controlling key industries, running intelligence operations, and commanding the most capable military forces in the country. With Khamenei gone, the Guards are the most organized, best-armed, and most deeply entrenched institution left standing.
The second scenario is "prolonged civil strife between those seeking to topple the system's remnants against those clawing to preserve it." This is not a democratic revolution - it is a fragmented struggle between factions with no unified opposition leadership, no agreed political program, and no institutional framework for a transition.
The Iranian public, Vaez warns, is "unarmed, fragmented, and facing one of the most securitized states in the region." Even a weakened regime retains coercive institutions built precisely for moments of crisis. The analyst's core argument is that bombs can degrade infrastructure and eliminate leaders, but "they do not manufacture organized political alternatives." With the Islamic Republic in a fight for survival, "it is impossible to predict what will happen next with any confidence" - but the change, whatever shape it takes, "will be profound."
Also read: Israel Struck a Secret Gathering in Iran: The Target Was the Group Choosing Khamenei's Successor