Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's Under Secretary of War for Policy, has delivered a clear warning against European nuclear proliferation while simultaneously endorsing a greater European contribution to NATO's nuclear deterrence. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations on March 4, Colby was asked directly whether the US would discourage allies like Germany, Poland, or Scandinavian nations from developing their own nuclear capabilities. "We'd more than try to talk them out of it. We'd obviously, at a minimum, strenuously oppose it," he replied.
As reported by "Hvylya", citing the full text of Colby's address, his position draws a precise line between two very different European nuclear paths. Independent acquisition of nuclear weapons by additional NATO members - a violation of their Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations - is firmly off the table. But a "greater European complexion to NATO nuclear deterrence," built around Britain's and France's existing arsenals, is something the Pentagon considers "perfectly appropriate" and "reasonable."
Colby grounded his position in alliance history, citing the Ottawa statement - repeated at NATO summits for fifty years - which recognizes that "the independent nuclear deterrence of the United Kingdom and France contribute to the deterrence and defense of the alliance." He noted that Britain has already decided to expand its contribution to NATO nuclear deterrence and that discussions with France are advancing on how to fold European nuclear capabilities more deeply into NATO planning.
At the same time, Colby injected a dose of realism about the limits of European nuclear deterrence. "The French nuclear deterrent is designed for the defense of France," he noted. "So it's one thing to change declaratory policy. It's another thing to have a credible nuclear deterrent that you can extend to countries that may be hundreds of miles away." He said the US has "put ourselves in contortions for seventy-five years trying to figure out how to do extended deterrence" - suggesting that Europeans should not underestimate the difficulty of what they are contemplating.
Colby also pushed back against the narrative that European nuclear discussions are driven by distrust of the United States. "The Europeans are usually saying to us, 'Hey, we're talking to the French, but don't take it the wrong way. We understand that this is not a substitute,'" he said. He described the dynamic as manageable within the NATO 3.0 framework: "We're asking the Europeans to step up. We just need to be practical about it."