Iran's strategic miscalculations did not begin with Operation Epic Fury. Since October 7, 2023, Tehran has fallen into a repeating pattern: overestimating its own capability while underestimating its adversaries' resolve and appetite for risk. Now, with the regime fighting for survival, that pattern may prove fatal.
Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, identifies this recurring failure in his analysis for Foreign Affairs, as reported by "Hvylya".
The latest iteration of this miscalculation is Tehran's apparent belief that retaliatory strikes on US bases and Israeli targets will force Trump to back off. The logic, Vaez explains, is that "any strike that costs the United States lives and treasure could be a potentially significant political blow to Trump, particularly given that he ran for office based in part on avoiding military entanglements."
But that reading of Trump ignores a fundamental asymmetry. While the US president may indeed pay a political price for this war over the longer term, "in the short term, the risk for escalation is still very high." A US retreat now would make "a major gamble appear to have backfired" - something no president can afford, least of all one who has staked his credibility on projecting strength.
The pattern is consistent across multiple crises since October 7: Iran has repeatedly assumed its adversaries would show restraint when they did not, assumed its deterrence was stronger than it was, and assumed retaliation would bring de-escalation rather than further strikes. Each miscalculation has left Tehran weaker. This time, with Khamenei dead and the regime's survival at stake, the cost of getting it wrong again could be existential.
Also read: Fatal Miscalculation: Friedman Reveals Why Iran Clung to Its Nuclear Program Despite the Risks