Tehran's retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases in the Gulf rest on a specific strategic calculation: that Donald Trump will eventually back down, just as he abandoned the costly war against the Houthis in Yemen last year. A leading Iran analyst argues this may be a fatal miscalculation.
Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, unpacks Iran's logic in Foreign Affairs, as reported by "Hvylya".
From Tehran's perspective, the reasoning has its own coherence. Iran "seems to believe that Trump's preference is for limited and spectacular rather than sustained and open-ended campaigns." If it can demonstrate the potential for unlimited escalation - costing the United States lives and treasure - it may dissuade Trump from going further. Any American casualties would be "a potentially significant political blow to Trump, particularly given that he ran for office based in part on avoiding military entanglements."
But the analogy with Yemen is deeply flawed. The Houthi conflict was a peripheral engagement where withdrawal carried little political cost. Operation Epic Fury is a presidential-level gamble with hundreds of targets struck and a supreme leader killed. A US retreat now would make that gamble "appear to have backfired" - an outcome far more politically damaging than any casualty count.
This is the trap Vaez identifies. Iran's escalation, rather than forcing American withdrawal, makes US withdrawal less likely. Each retaliatory salvo from Tehran deepens Washington's commitment and raises the stakes for both sides. The very strategy Iran has chosen to save itself may be accelerating its destruction.
Also read: Time Favors Tehran: Kulpa Reveals Iran's Unexpected Strategy Against Washington