Ukraine will face a catastrophic budget crisis in the post-war period: only 3% of GDP, or about $6 billion per year, will remain for all social expenditures. This means that even the pension fund will not be able to cover its deficit.
This was stated by economist Oleg Ustenko in an interview with Yuriy Romanenko's YouTube channel.
According to the expert's calculations, maintaining an army of 800,000 people will require $60 billion annually – this is 30% of current GDP. Medical care for veterans and creating a barrier-free environment will cost another $10 billion (5% of GDP). Servicing the state debt, which has reached 100% of GDP, will require at least 2% of GDP.
"You get 37% of GDP that are simply mandatory – take it out and put it down. And 40% of your GDP is redistributed through the state budget. So for everything else, for all kinds of political wishes, for demands formed by society, for everything altogether, 3% of GDP remains," Ustenko calculated.
The economist emphasized that 3% of GDP at the current moment is about $6 billion. Currently, $45 billion is spent on all expenses not related to the security and defense sector. This means the need to cut social spending by more than seven times.
Ustenko also noted that payments for fallen AFU soldiers of 15 million hryvnias each must be added, which considering the number of casualties will amount to tens of billions of dollars. The expert emphasized that all these issues must be resolved before signing a peace agreement, otherwise the country will be left alone with unsolvable financial problems.