Iran's path to victory does not require military success on the battlefield - only endurance, Polish strategic analyst Piotr Kulpa said. The Islamic Republic's "incredible advantage" is time itself, and Tehran's optimal strategy is to hide, absorb the strikes, and wait for American political and material constraints to take effect.
In an interview with "Hvylya", Kulpa argued that Iran has prepared extensively for this scenario. The protests that erupted two months before the war were likely a deliberate provocation by Iranian security services - designed to draw opposition activists into the open and eliminate them. "The stability of this regime has become much stronger," Kulpa said, adding that Iran has also armed itself heavily with Chinese support, facilitated through North Korea, Russia, and Belarus.
Trump faces hard constraints that work against a prolonged campaign. The president has the legal authority to start a war, but after 60 to 100 days, Congressional approval and additional funding are required. There are also practical limits - finite missile stocks, overstretched logistics, and the political cost of a war that was supposed to last four weeks. "Trump boasted that he had stopped eight wars," Kulpa noted. "And now he started eight wars in a single day."
The analyst drew a direct parallel with Bush's invasion of Iraq. "If you read Bush going into Iraq, the approach was identical - respect for the people, hatred of the government, and so on. What did they get? A destroyed country, carnage, helplessness, and a failed state." Kulpa believes Trump's aim is essentially the same for Iran, but the geography, the people, and the traditions are fundamentally different.
After a month or so, Tehran can simply declare victory - "and no one will say anything," Kulpa said. "What will change? Nothing will change." The fog of war currently favors optimistic American assessments, but the analyst warned that the underlying dynamics point in Iran's direction. "Iran doesn't need to do anything except hide and wait. The war runs on America's time and resources."
Also read: "The Clock Is Ticking": Why the U.S. and Israel May Lose the War of Attrition Against Iran