The debate over inevitable electricity tariff hikes has reignited in Ukraine. Multiple sources—from the National Bank to industry experts—are forecasting price increases following the end of the heating season.
As reported by Hvylya, energy expert Oleg Popenko shared his insights on the situation in an interview published on February 12, 2026, on the PopenkoPro YouTube channel.
Lobbyists for the increase argue that Ukrainians must pay market rates to generate funds for repairing damaged infrastructure and ending blackouts. However, some specialists dismiss this framing as manipulative.
Citing sources within the government, Popenko claims a fundamental decision to revise tariffs has effectively been made, with the final word now resting with the Office of the President. The plan involves increasing the cost per kilowatt by approximately one hryvnia. This would push the rate from the current 4.32 UAH to a range of 5.30–5.60 UAH in the near future.
The expert strongly disagrees with Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center, who suggests that higher tariffs will save the country from blackouts. Popenko insists that power outages are the result of the physical destruction of generation facilities and networks by Russian missiles, not financial shortfalls. He argues that no amount of revenue collected from the population can instantly restore destroyed thermal power plants or substations, noting that reconstruction funds are typically secured through state guarantees and loans rather than direct consumer payments.
Furthermore, the analyst points to the excess profits of Energoatom, which he claims is already selling electricity with a massive markup reaching 700%. Given the war and state monopolies—where Naftogaz controls 95% of the gas market—Popenko characterizes talk of "market tariffs" as an attempt to shift responsibility for management failures and the slow pace of recovery onto ordinary citizens.
"The final decision will be made at the level of the Office of the President... According to my data from a serious source, the cost of electricity next year will increase by about one hryvnia. That is, up to 5.5 hryvnia," Popenko stated.
He emphasized that power outages in Ukraine are unrelated to tariff levels, asserting that the energy sector has sufficient funds. With Energoatom selling electricity on the exchange at a 600–700% markup, Popenko argues the price hike has no bearing on infrastructure restoration.
"Kharchenko says: 'This will allow us to attract money for recovery.' Tariff increases have nothing to do with attracting funds. We attract money under state guarantees. What market gas tariffs can exist during a war with force majeure and state regulation? In this situation, we should conversely say: we are introducing state regulation for the duration of the war and six months after... and only then look at the solvency of the population," the expert added.
Previously, the expert explained where the 125 MW of capacity intended to save Kyiv disappeared.