US Vice President JD Vance's visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan has signaled a complete restructuring of the security architecture in the South Caucasus, leaving no room for Russia or China.
Expert Tigran Avakyan stated this during a broadcast with Yuri Romanenko, editor-in-chief of "Hvylya", while analyzing the consequences of American diplomacy in the region.
According to the expert, Yerevan received not only political support from Washington but also colossal economic guarantees. A key element was the legitimization of Armenia as the "first Christian nation" for the conservative US electorate, alongside agreements to develop nuclear energy.
"The figure being discussed is $9 billion. This isn't just money that flows in and out. Nuclear energy is a 50-60 year cycle. It means the US is entering the region technologically, physically, and financially for decades. If you build reactors there, you service them, supply the fuel, and control security. It means the United States has said: 'We are here for the long haul, if not forever,'" Avakyan emphasized.
Regarding the political figure of Nikol Pashinyan, he remains an "understandable instrument" for the Trump administration. Although ideologically distant from the Republicans, his readiness to break with Moscow suits Washington.
"He is the ideal partner for a soft transformation. He doesn't resist. He is ready to surrender Russian positions, ready to leave the CSTO (de facto, he already has), and ready to accept Western rules of the game. That is why they use him. He is an understandable tool for them. Not loved, but convenient," the expert noted.
In Baku, the American strategy looks different: total pragmatism and a lack of pressure on human rights issues. As Tigran Avakyan noted, Aliyev received confirmation of his status in exchange for fulfilling specific geopolitical tasks: containing Iran, and managing energy transit and logistics.
"For Washington, Aliyev is now a classic 'contractor'... Washington looks at Aliyev and says: 'Okay, you're authoritarian? We don't care. Do you solve our problems? Yes. Do you create problems for us? No. Let's work,'" the analyst explained.
Avakyan emphasized that the US has effectively given Aliyev carte blanche on domestic policy, as Republicans prioritize "functionality" over lectures on democracy.
"Moreover, Aliyev realized it's easier for him with Republicans. They don't demand he become a European. They need functionality. If Azerbaijan ensures transit and keeps Iran in its sights, he's a 'good guy.' And it is important to add the Israel factor here. Azerbaijan is Israel's closest partner in the Muslim world. For the US, this is also an argument. Weapons, intelligence, joint actions against Iran — it all works in a single bundle," the analyst explained.
The new regional configuration, where Armenia becomes a humanitarian and energy hub while Azerbaijan serves as a security and logistics center, leaves no space for Moscow's influence. Bogged down in the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has lost its leverage in the Caucasus.
"She [Russia] has no resources to beat a $9 billion offer. She has no military resource to intimidate Aliyev, who has Turkey behind him. Russia is now so bogged down in Ukraine that the Caucasus is becoming dead weight for her. She might want to do something, but that train has already left," Tigran Avakyan summarized.
Experts agree that the US has not simply pushed out competitors but created a system where Yerevan and Baku do not compete for Washington's attention, but rather complement each other in a global strategy to contain Iran and China.