Europe finds itself in a position where traditional security guarantees are weakening, while the United States, under Donald Trump's leadership, is shifting toward hardheaded pragmatism. In this new reality, Ukraine must move away from appeals to "values" and begin marketing its "utility" as the only credible military force on the continent.
Analyst Tigran Avakian expressed this view during a broadcast with Hvylya editor-in-chief Yuriy Romanenko.
According to the expert, European nations—Poland in particular—recognize the threat of the Baltic states falling. In this configuration, Ukraine's role changes fundamentally: it transforms from a petitioner into a guarantor.
"In this setup, Ukraine becomes more than just a 'buffer'; it becomes the only real force with experience fighting this horde. The paradox is that Europe may eventually have to ask the Ukrainian army to defend NATO’s eastern flank," Avakian noted.
He does not rule out a scenario where, following the conclusion of the war's active phase, Ukrainian units would be stationed in Lithuania or Poland.
"I don't rule it out. Moreover, it could be part of our security guarantees... 'We give you weapons and money, and you provide us with security.' Because the Germans have no army, and the French have a small expeditionary one. The only combat-capable army in Europe in two years will be the Ukrainian army—and the Polish one, which is currently being built," the analyst emphasized.
The expert characterized the new U.S. administration's actions as an " 'Anaconda strategy' in turbo mode," where Washington rapidly closes the perimeter around its enemies (Iran, China) and discards redundant players like Russia. In such a world, Ukraine needs to change its rhetoric.
"This is a world with no room for sentiment. You are either strong and useful—like Azerbaijan, Turkey, or Poland—or you are on the menu. In this situation, Ukraine must stop appealing to 'values' and 'pity.' It needs to sell its utility," Avakian stated.
Clarifying Yuriy Romanenko’s point on whether "utility" means acting as the West’s "attack dog" on the border of chaos, the expert replied: "Blunt, but accurate. Being the frontier. Being the wall. And charging a very high price for it. Just as Israel, Turkey, and now Azerbaijan do. We must learn to be cynical. Vance is a cynic. Trump is a cynic. You cannot talk to them about 'injustice.' You must speak the language of deals: 'I give you this, you give me that.'"
Beyond military strength, Ukraine can offer the U.S. resources (lithium, titanium, uranium) and political loyalty as a counterweight to the "old" EU elites, whom Trump dislikes.
"Resources—lithium, titanium, uranium. Logistics. And political loyalty to spite 'Old Europe.' Trump dislikes Brussels and Berlin. If Kyiv becomes Washington’s 'favorite partner' in Europe, serving as a counterweight to old EU elites, that is also a commodity. We could become part of a new axis: London – Warsaw – Kyiv – Ankara – Baku. This is an axis oriented toward the U.S. and Britain, rather than Germany and France," Avakian believes.
This opens the door to a new geopolitical alliance focused on Washington and London rather than Brussels.
"We can become part of this new axis... It is our chance to survive and become a global player. If we simply beg to join the EU as a 'poor relative,' we will be swallowed by bureaucracy. But if we are part of an American security project, we will be reckoned with," the expert concluded.