At a closed-door Easter luncheon at the White House, President Trump turned his vice president into a punchline. After demanding an update on Iran peace negotiations from JD Vance, Trump delivered the joke: "If it doesn't happen, I'm blaming JD Vance. If it does happen, I'm taking full credit." The video, which the White House appeared to have accidentally posted online, captures a dynamic that has defined Vance's tenure as America's No. 2.

"Hvylya" reports, citing a New York Times opinion column. Vance's standing as Trump's heir in the MAGA movement has slipped measurably in recent polling. At last month's Conservative Political Action Conference, Rubio surged to 35 percent from 3 percent a year earlier, while Vance retreated to 53 percent from 61 percent.

The Iran war defines Vance's predicament. He positioned himself as a leading "America first" voice, arguing in 2024 that war with Iran was "very much" against the national interest. Then Trump saddled him with the conflict. White House officials leaked word that Vance was skeptical about the war before the U.S. invasion of Iran, but Trump shut down that escape route, saying Vance was "maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic."

Vance's trajectory is a study in diminishing returns. He embraced anti-immigrant stances he once called "reprehensible" and other elements of the MAGA movement to win a Senate seat and then the vice presidency. He once referred to Trump as "cultural heroin" and feared he could be "America's Hitler." Now he defends the war by arguing it is acceptable because "we have a smart president whereas in the past we've had dumb presidents."

The ethnonationalist right to which Vance tethered himself appears to be faltering both at home and abroad. The Iran war has alienated those who believed Trump's promise not to start a war, then watched as the administration bombed Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela while threatening Cuba and Greenland. What once looked like a cruise to the 2028 Republican nomination now looks more like a run through the Strait of Hormuz.

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