The logic seemed clear: replace fossil fuels with renewables, and countries would expand their freedom of action in foreign policy by shedding dependence on foreign oil and gas. The Iran crisis has exposed that promise as dangerously incomplete.
Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O'Sullivan have argued in Foreign Affairs that clean energy offers no refuge from geopolitical risks, "Hvylya" reports. Dependence can be weaponized in the clean energy economy just as easily as in the fossil fuel market.
China controls much of the world's critical mineral processing and dominates supply chains for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles. When Beijing restricted rare-earth exports in 2025 in response to U.S. export controls, automakers on both sides of the Atlantic struggled to secure parts, some production was interrupted, and European prices for key components of electric vehicles soared.
Europe faces a particular dilemma. The continent's leaders have been deeply motivated to reduce reliance on imported oil and gas since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the Iran war has reinforced that commitment. But a European strategy based on electrification and renewable energy would increase dependence on Chinese-dominated supply chains. In trying to escape one form of geopolitical exposure, Europe may have to accept another.
Despite its own vulnerabilities - roughly half of China's crude oil imports transit the Strait of Hormuz - Beijing has positioned itself better than most through two decades of aggressive electrification. Electricity now accounts for more than 30 percent of China's final energy consumption. The massive buffer of strategic oil reserves China has built up has helped absorb the shock, while the United States has been selling off its own stockpile. Beijing is now likely to accelerate electrification of transport and industry, pursue even larger sources of critical minerals, and continue expanding reserves and grid infrastructure.
"Hvylya" also explored how Germany's decision to shut its last reactors during a crisis reveals deeper policy contradictions.