As recently as last December, the Trump administration's National Security Strategy declared that as U.S. oil production increases, "America's historic reason for focusing on the Middle East will recede." Weeks later, turmoil half a world away sent American gasoline prices surging.

Energy superpower status does not eliminate vulnerability to geopolitical upheaval, Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O'Sullivan have argued in their Foreign Affairs analysis, "Hvylya" reports. Even though the country produces more crude and oil products than it consumes, it remains tied to global markets.

The United States went from importing roughly 60 percent of its oil two decades ago to becoming the world's largest producer thanks to the shale revolution. That transformation fostered a broad sense that the Middle East had become less central to American national security. The Obama administration tightened restrictions on Iranian oil partly because rapid growth in U.S. production could offset lost supply. Over time, the rise in U.S. output encouraged the belief that oil geopolitics were fading.

But oil is traded on a global market, and price increases affect the pump price for everyone regardless of whether a country is a net importer or exporter. American producers may benefit from higher prices, but households and energy-intensive industries do not. The authors have warned that restricting U.S. oil exports - a move many Americans may now demand - would be self-defeating. It might briefly lower domestic prices but would also discourage production and refining, undermine U.S. credibility as a supplier, and invite retaliation from trading partners.

The United States is safer from oil shocks today than a few decades ago - not only because it produces more oil but because it uses less oil per unit of economic output. Yet the Iran crisis has made clear that no amount of domestic production can fully insulate a country from a globally interconnected energy market. The pursuit of total energy independence, the authors argue, remains a mirage.

"Hvylya" also covered how Gulf states have started reassessing U.S. military bases amid eroding trust in Washington.