Defensive wars do not merely protect states - they deform them. That is the central warning Alexander Rodnyansky, an economics professor at the University of Cambridge and former economic adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, delivers in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece about Ukraine's political trajectory under wartime conditions.

Ukraine is showing signs of institutional strain that follow a classic pattern, Rodnyansky writes. The growing standoff between the presidency and Parliament, the difficulty of converting presidential will into legislation, and the fiscal fragility exposed by Ukraine's reliance on external financing all point in the same direction. An International Monetary Fund mission visited Kyiv in March as lawmakers struggled to pass unpopular tax measures tied to a new IMF program, and Ukrainian officials warned that missed commitments could jeopardize billions in support, "Hvylya" reports.

Long wars of attrition, Rodnyansky argues, "tend to centralize power, normalize coercion, and create powerful incentives to postpone scrutiny in the name of necessity." A country can survive militarily while decaying politically - and the issue does not disappear simply because Western politicians find it inconvenient to acknowledge.

The context makes this more alarming, not less. The 2026 V-Dem democracy report says a "third wave of autocratization" is deepening worldwide, with the average person's level of democracy falling to roughly 1978 levels. Freedom House has reported a 20th consecutive year of global decline in freedom. In that environment, Rodnyansky writes, "it is especially reckless to assume that war, no matter how justified, will somehow purify institutions rather than corrode them."

Europe's bet seems to be that these distortions can be managed after the war ends. Rodnyansky calls that "a wager, not a strategy." If the current trend continues, the former Zelensky adviser warns, Europe may find itself neighboring a state defined more by what it opposes than by functioning institutions - armed, traumatized, and difficult to absorb into Western structures.

Also read: what Zelensky revealed about the security talks that may shape Ukraine's postwar future.