Japan gets 95 percent of its oil from the Middle East, and 70 percent of that passes through the Strait of Hormuz - now blocked by Iranian attacks. Yet Japanese diplomats in the first weeks of the war complained that they were "not receiving any communication from the Trump administration."
Brookings Institution senior fellow Robert Kagan has described how the Iran conflict is quietly reshaping the balance of power in the Pacific, as Washington strips the region of the very forces designed to deter Chinese aggression, "Hvylya" reports, citing his analysis in The Atlantic.
The United States has dispatched an aircraft-carrier battle group and other warships from the Western Pacific to the Persian Gulf, including elements of the Tripoli amphibious ready group that would be needed for an American response to Chinese aggression, including an attack on Taiwan. The longer American attention and resources stay tied up in the Middle East, Kagan argued, the better for Beijing.
Chinese leaders will also note that the United States has been "fearful of sending warships to open the Strait of Hormuz lest they come under fire from a significantly depleted Iranian force," Kagan wrote. If Washington hesitates to challenge a weakened Iran at sea, the implications for a far more powerful Chinese navy are hard to miss.
Hegseth himself acknowledged that "the only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping." Kagan turned the logic around: the only thing preventing the United States from aiding Taiwan will be China shooting - with far superior and far more plentiful weaponry.
Combined Israeli and American forces have demonstrated impressive capabilities against Iran, but Kagan questioned whether that success translates to the Pacific. Israel shouldered the dangerous task of dismantling Iran's air defenses first. In a conflict over Taiwan, he asked, "will the Israelis take out Chinese air-defense systems for the United States too?"
"Hvylya" earlier reported on the critical weakness in Asia that the Iran war laid bare for America's Pacific allies.