For European leaders scrambling to build defenses against Russia, the Iran war has delivered a blunt message from Washington: you are on your own.
Writing in The Atlantic, Brookings Institution senior fellow Robert Kagan has argued that American conduct in the Iran conflict is accelerating the final disintegration of the alliance system built after World War II, "Hvylya" reports.
Kagan noted that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told Europeans last year to be ready by 2027 to defend themselves without American help. The Europeans have been desperately reorienting their economies and military strategies to face the Russian threat alone. They have also taken on the bulk of military and economic support for Ukraine because they fear Putin's territorial ambitions extend beyond its borders.
Then came what Kagan described as the final blow: Trump's decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil over the opposition of every major ally. The message to Europe, as scholar Ivan Krastev put it, is that "the trans-Atlantic relationship no longer matters." American indifference to the European struggle against Russian aggression, Kagan wrote, "constitutes a profound geopolitical revolution - perhaps the final disintegration of the alliance relationships established after World War II."
Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni - not a liberal critic but Trump's conservative ally - recently warned that American actions have produced "a crisis in international law and multilateral organizations" and "the collapse of a shared world order." When even friendly governments sound the alarm, Kagan argued, the damage runs deeper than any single policy dispute.
Spain has already refused American use of air and naval bases on its territory. Kagan predicted that next time, the refusal could come from Germany, Italy, or even Japan.
Also read: how Elbridge Colby laid out a new NATO model with a harsh reality for Europe.