Mojtaba Khamenei, chosen last week as Iran's new supreme leader, lacks both charisma and religious authority. What drives him instead is hatred and a desire for revenge - he has lost his father, wife, and son in the ongoing war. Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, writing in Foreign Policy, warns that the emerging Iran will be an IRGC state built around exactly this kind of grievance.
The old theocracy had effectively exhausted itself, "Hvylya" reports. Ali Khamenei had no credible successor after the death of Ebrahim Raisi, his preferred heir, in a 2024 helicopter crash. Mojtaba's selection was a default, not a mandate. Yet the forces around him - the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - remain intact enough to form the backbone of what Ignatius calls "Islamic Republic 2.0," operating in "a corrupt but pragmatic alliance with Iran's business interests."
Hard-line intelligence experts in the United States and abroad who have studied the mullahs for decades see little chance of breaking the regime's will, Ignatius reports. The IRGC cadres are hiding among rubble but have not been eliminated. Meanwhile, regime spokesman Mohammad Marandi posted a defiant video even as bombs fell, declaring that Iranians "will push this war until the United States and the West recognize that attacking Iran is not an option."
Whether a more pragmatic figure will emerge from within the system remains an open question. But the columnist is skeptical - and the early diplomatic signals are not encouraging for Washington. Oman has already sent congratulations to the new supreme leader, suggesting that some of Iran's neighbors may be hedging their bets on the IRGC state's staying power.
Previously: Petraeus: Killing the Supreme Leader Changed Nothing - Iran's Regime Regenerated From Within.