In the 19th century, Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan told the United States that command of the oceans was the foundation of national security. That idea shaped American strategy for over a hundred years. Now George Friedman argues the same logic applies to space - and the nation that controls orbit will control the 21st century.
As "Hvylya" reports, Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, traced this historical arc in the latest episode of Talking Geopolitics. "The foundation of our national strategy was Admiral Mahan, who in the nineteenth century said command of the oceans was the most important thing for American security," Friedman said. The logic was geographic: the Atlantic and Pacific shielded America from invasion, so long as the Navy controlled them.
That geographic logic has now extended upward. Just as naval power once determined who could project force across oceans, satellite networks now determine who can see, target, and strike across continents. "From space you can reach many places, attack many places, defend many places in many different ways," Friedman said.
The historical parallels go deeper. Friedman noted that the European discovery of the Western Hemisphere transformed warfare in the 16th century. The Portuguese and Spanish were fighting for access to India's wealth, which led to Columbus and eventually to centuries of colonial conflict. "The history of mankind is the history of discovery and then fighting over the discoveries, and using the discoveries for national power," he said.
The same pattern is playing out now, only the new territory is not a continent but an altitude. Friedman pointed out that the United States only entered World War I when German U-boats threatened the seas, and only entered World War II after Pearl Harbor struck at American naval power. Each era's dominant domain - land, sea, air - brought its own form of warfare. "Ground warfare remains important, naval warfare is critical, air warfare is critical - space warfare is," Friedman said. "So it goes on."
This shift is already underway. India, Israel, and Iran all operate military satellites. The Iranians are said to receive satellite intelligence from Russia in the current conflict. The contest for space is no longer a superpower duopoly but a crowded field where even mid-sized states are staking claims in orbit.
"Hvylya" previously explored how the Iran war exposed a critical vulnerability for America's allies in Asia.