Ray Dalio has published a 13-step sequence that he says has repeatedly preceded world wars throughout history, arguing that most of the indicators on his checklist are already flashing.
The Bridgewater Associates founder laid out the pattern in an essay for TIME, saying the current environment is "roughly analogous to the 1913-14 and the 1938-39 periods," as "Hvylya" reports.
His list begins with a dominant world power falling relative to a rising rival and ends with one side winning outright and redesigning the global order. In between come economic sanctions and trade blockades, the formation of rival alliances, a rise in proxy wars, ballooning deficits, and government capture of critical supply chains.
"Trade chokepoints become weaponized" and "powerful new technologies for war are built," Dalio wrote, pointing out that such stages are followed by multi-theater conflicts and "direct military combat between major powers." He added that internal politics also harden, with governments demanding "loyal support" for the war effort and squashing opposition.
Dalio said the financing stage is particularly dangerous for leading powers, which typically respond with "big increases in taxes, debt issuance, money creation, FX controls, capital controls, and financial repression" to pay for the fighting. "In some cases, markets are shut down," he wrote.
The investor warned that historical wars rarely begin with a single dramatic trigger. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the German invasion of Poland and the bombing of Pearl Harbor, he said, "are actually the exceptions."
Earlier, "Hvylya" wrote that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping face a 1914-style leadership test that neither leader looks ready to handle.