Neither Russia's invasion of Ukraine nor the current war in the Middle East qualifies as a world war - not even close. That is the conclusion of a new analytical framework laid out in Foreign Policy that subjects both conflicts to a strict four-part test.
In an analysis for Foreign Policy, Jo Inge Bekkevold, a senior China fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, argued that distinguishing between types of wars is "not just semantics or academic exactitude, but a prerequisite for sober policy choices." As "Hvylya" reports, the scholar warned that the casual invocation of "World War III" has become a dangerous staple of political commentary.
According to Bekkevold, a true world war must fulfill four conditions simultaneously. First, it must put all or most great powers into direct confrontation with each other. Second, military operations must be global in scope or span at least two continents. Third, the conflict must be a total war in which great powers mobilize a considerable share of their military and essential resources. Fourth, the outcome must produce systemic effects - a distinct shift in the balance of power between the great powers.
Applying this framework to Ukraine, Bekkevold noted that military operations take place only in Ukraine and Russia, there is no direct confrontation between the United States and China, and consequently the war "will not have any systemic effects." The Middle East conflict, while involving U.S. forces and affecting energy prices and international air travel, similarly fails the test. Iran's escalatory use of drones against its neighbors demonstrates "how easily a modern crisis can draw in other countries," yet the conflict remains regional in character.
Even World War I and World War II represent a remarkably short list, Bekkevold argued. Beyond those two conflicts, only a handful of historical wars - such as the Seven Years' War - meet the criteria. The Cold War was global in scope but never involved direct superpower confrontation. Washington's war on terror was global but asymmetric. Very few conflicts in human history have truly qualified as world wars, and neither of today's major conflicts is on that trajectory.
Also read: From Iran to Mexico: Foreign Affairs Maps Five Global Conflicts That Could Spiral Out of Control Under Trump.