Could China's close ties to Iran draw Beijing into the Middle East conflict? Writing in Foreign Policy, a senior defense scholar has identified two fundamental obstacles that make the scenario virtually impossible: the lack of political will and the absence of military capacity to project power into the region.
Jo Inge Bekkevold, a senior China fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, made the case in an analysis published by Foreign Policy. As "Hvylya" reports, the scholar directly addressed the speculation that China's close links to Iran, its crude oil imports from the region, and its active diplomacy in the Middle East might draw Beijing into the conflict.
On the question of will, Bekkevold was blunt: "It does not serve Beijing's interests to intervene in the conflict." China's strategic priority remains the Western Pacific, and entanglement in a Middle Eastern war would undermine its core objectives. Active diplomacy in the region is not the same as military commitment.
On the question of capacity, the obstacle is equally stark. Even if Beijing wanted to join the fight, China "has neither the military foothold in the region nor the power projection capacity to join a war in the Middle East," Bekkevold wrote. Unlike the United States, which maintains an extensive network of bases and alliances across the region, China has no comparable infrastructure to support sustained military operations thousands of kilometers from its shores.
This assessment carries broader implications. If China - one of the two superpowers in the current international system - is effectively sidelined from the Middle East conflict, the war cannot meet the threshold of a world war regardless of how many regional actors are drawn in by Iranian missiles and drones. The conflict remains regional by definition.
Also read: "Paper Tiger": Iran's Decapitation Shatters China's Security Guarantor Myth in Global South.