There is exactly one scenario in which the war with Iran advances American interests. Historian Niall Ferguson defined it with precision: the war must end within weeks, and the regime that replaces Ali Khamenei's must be fundamentally different from the one it succeeds. Anything short of that, he argued, turns the campaign into a net loss for the United States.
Speaking on the Conversations with Coleman podcast, as reported by "Hvylya", Ferguson laid out why the bar for success is so high - and why the margin for error is so thin.
The administration's model, Ferguson explained, was Venezuela: a quick leadership swap where Nicolas Maduro was replaced by his deputy Delcy Rodriguez, and the country came "under new management" reporting to Washington. President Trump envisioned something similar for Iran - not parliamentary democracy, but regime alteration. "He just wants new leadership," Ferguson said. The Venezuelan template assumed speed.
"It will only prove to have been in American interests if the war ends within a matter of weeks, this month in March," Ferguson said. If Khamenei's son - whom Ferguson called "Mini Me Khamenei" - takes over, the exercise fails on its own terms. "That regime will be just as toxic and perhaps even more toxic than the one before."
Ferguson expressed guarded optimism that decapitation might still work. "The regime is hated," he said, pointing to January protests that resulted in the deaths of 30,000 to 40,000 Iranians. "Massive popular disenchantment with the regime, not just on ideological grounds - I think there is a secular tendency in the population - but also on economic grounds." He argued it was "not completely implausible" that someone within Iran's power structure would accept the Rodriguez role.
Richard Haass was less hopeful. "I get very uncomfortable with goals that I am not confident - if I were advising the president, I could walk into the Oval Office and say, 'If you were to do X, Y, and Z, we would have that outcome,'" he said. His working assumption: "Iran is going to be all too recognizable when this is done."
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