No one in Donald Trump's inner circle fought harder against the war with Iran than Vice President JD Vance - and no one was more thoroughly overruled. Vance had built his political career opposing the kind of military adventurism now under serious consideration, and he used every argument at his disposal to steer the president away from a full-scale campaign, according to a detailed New York Times account of the decision-making process, "Hvylya" reports.
Vance warned Trump directly that a war against Iran could cause regional chaos and untold casualties. It could break apart the president's political coalition and would be seen as a betrayal by voters who had believed the promise of no new wars. The vice president also flagged the scope of America's munitions problem - a conflict against a regime with enormous will for survival could leave the United States unable to fight other wars for years.
The vice president told associates that no amount of military analysis could truly predict what Iran would do when regime survival was at stake. A war could easily spiral in unpredictable directions. And then there was the Strait of Hormuz - Iran held the advantage, and choking off that waterway would send gasoline prices soaring in the United States.
Vance was not a dove across the board. In January, when Trump publicly warned Iran to stop killing protesters, the vice president privately encouraged him to enforce the red line. But what Vance pushed for was a limited, punitive strike - something closer to Trump's 2017 missile attack on Syria over chemical weapons use. When it became clear the president was set on a large-scale campaign, Vance argued for overwhelming force in hopes of achieving objectives quickly.
At the final Situation Room meeting on Feb. 26, Vance addressed Trump directly: "You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I'll support you." Tucker Carlson, the commentator, had come to the Oval Office multiple times to warn that a war with Iran would destroy Trump's presidency. A couple weeks before the campaign began, Trump tried to reassure him by phone: "I know you're worried about it, but it's going to be OK." Carlson asked how he knew. "Because it always is," Trump replied.
Every other adviser in the room ultimately deferred to the president's instincts. They had seen him take on enormous risks and come out on top. No one would stand in his way now.
Also read: how each missile fired at Iran weakens American deterrence in other theaters - and Beijing knows it.
