Ukraine has spent years fortifying the narrow strip of the Donbas it still controls, turning urban areas into what military analysts now call the "fortress belt." Surrendering this terrain - as the Trump administration's peace formula envisions - would leave the largely flat steppe to its west exposed to a future Russian advance.
This military reality undercuts the logic of the proposed land-for-guarantees deal, Samuel Charap and Jennifer Kavanagh argue in a new Foreign Affairs analysis, as "Hvylya" reports. The bargain assumes that Western security commitments can compensate for the loss of defensive ground. But the authors contend the math does not work: "Sacrificing the rest of the Donbas will objectively make Ukraine less resilient to future attacks."
The fortified positions in eastern Donbas protect the open terrain behind them. While operating in flat steppe would expose Russian forces to drone strikes, the loss of prepared urban defenses still tilts the balance. Western guarantees could theoretically offset this vulnerability - but only if they genuinely ensured NATO would enter the fight should Russia attack again. Charap and Kavanagh see no basis for that belief. "Ukrainian officials have no reason to believe that these countries will be willing to enter a future war with Russia when they aren't fighting now," they write.
The analysts note that the security guarantees currently under discussion could actually worsen the situation. Press reports indicate Kyiv's Western partners are considering a "coalition of the willing," led by France and the United Kingdom, that would deploy forces to Ukraine after a cease-fire and support an 800,000-person peacetime Ukrainian military. This outcome would heighten Russia's sense of insecurity regardless of how much land Moscow acquires.
Charap, a senior political scientist at RAND, and Kavanagh, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, argue Ukraine would be better served by a deal that preserves its ability to defend itself with fortifications, drones, mines, and sufficient air defense stockpiles - rather than one that trades proven defensive terrain for untested promises.
Earlier, "Hvylya" reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied the United States was pressuring Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for protection.