Nearly a quarter of Europe's energy comes from natural gas, and the continent's effort to sever ties with Moscow has pushed it toward a different kind of dependence. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the EU has slashed Russian gas imports by roughly 75 percent. Imports of US liquefied natural gas more than quadrupled between early 2022 and 2025, filling the gap and helping bring prices back down after a 2022-23 spike.

According to Bruegel senior fellow Jacob Kirkegaard, writing in Foreign Affairs, the trend is set to accelerate: with EU countries agreeing to end all remaining Russian gas by late 2027, "the continent's dependence on U.S. supply will grow," "Hvylya" reports.

Some of the shortfall could be covered by additional pipeline supply from Norway, Algeria, or the eastern Mediterranean. But the vast majority will have to come from LNG imports. The ongoing war in the Middle East complicates matters further. If Iran's retaliatory strikes on Qatar's LNG facilities cause lasting damage, most of the EU's liquefied natural gas will need to come from American producers.

Washington is acutely aware of this leverage. The Turnberry trade agreement, negotiated between the EU and the Trump administration last year, includes provisions for Europe to import more American LNG and other fossil fuels, alongside a 15 percent cap on US tariffs on European exports. When the European Parliament considered ratification in March, US Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder told the Financial Times: "I don't know what will happen with respect to energy if they don't go forward with the agreement." He added that "there are other buyers out there."

Kirkegaard acknowledges that bowing to this implicit threat is "worrisome for the EU," but expects Brussels to approve the deal in the interest of businesses across the continent and of the broader transatlantic relationship. The United States and Norway are now Europe's most important gas suppliers - a strategic reality that gives Washington significant economic leverage over a continent still working to secure its energy independence.

Also read about the domestic energy options that Europe has politically closed off.