For decades, Western consensus held that geography was fading as destiny. The winners of the 21st century, the thinking went, would be defined not by control of territory and raw materials but by command of capital, technology and global networks. That assumption is collapsing.
The recent weaponization of supply chains - from Iran's paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz to China's rare-earth embargo - has demonstrated that hyperconnectivity has turned physical geography into "a possibly more potent weapon," "Hvylya" reports, citing a Wall Street Journal analysis of the new geopolitics of resources.
"There is a lot of talk about everything being digital, and software being king, but there are still many physical constraints that drive geopolitics," said Edward Fishman, director of the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare."
The evidence is stacking up. Iran's strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan - the world's largest LNG facility - and its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices up around 50%. Last year, China weaponized its control of 90% of the world's rare-earth magnet supply, forcing U.S. factories to idle and Washington to soften its trade demands.
"Great-power competition has returned to basics: who controls the physical resources that modern economies and militaries run on," said Alice Gower, a partner at Azure Strategy, a political-risk advisory firm in London.
The risks for nations lacking control of such resources span from soaring inflation and economic downturns to hampering the build-out of artificial intelligence and the militaries of the future. American strategists, the Journal noted, are starting to think more like military planners from World War II or the Cold War - focused on how all of society's resources can be mobilized and protected in a war effort.
Also read: Iran War Risks Draining the Very Power Washington Needs to Counter Beijing.