Ukraine's recent territorial gains in the southeast have been driven by a small pool of elite units known informally as "firefighters" - seasoned formations redeployed across the front line to plug defensive gaps or exploit Russian weaknesses.
The strategy has delivered results but carries a significant risk: pulling these troops from one sector can leave other parts of the front exposed, analysts told the Financial Times, as reported by "Hvylya".
The problem is compounded by Ukraine's chronic manpower shortages, which have persisted throughout the war. While the firefighter approach allowed Kyiv to achieve its southeastern push, the arrival of spring brings fresh challenges. Russian assault groups use foliage to hide from reconnaissance drones and push deeper into Ukrainian lines. Russian forces have already taken near-full control of the strongholds of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region and Huliaipole in the south.
"The ground is drying up, it will soon be green, we're entering the summer campaign," wrote Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian serviceman and popular commentator. Ukrainian drone operators, who form the backbone of the country's defensive strategy, "are going to become an even higher-priority target," he warned.
Russian forces have also been edging closer to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk - the last major cities in Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, which Moscow still demands Kyiv withdraw from as part of any peace deal. The DeepState war-tracking project said last week that the relative lull in March fighting coincided with Russian forces regrouping and replenishing reserves.
Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute noted that "there are weak points along the front line which can be exploited with proper planning and preparation" - but the same logic applies to both sides as the summer campaign approaches.
See also: Kofman Outlines an Optimistic Scenario for Ukraine in the Coming Year.