Russia has found itself profiting from the chaos engulfing Iran, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drives up global oil prices and fills Moscow's war-strained coffers, three Carnegie analysts have argued in Foreign Affairs, "Hvylya" reports.
Alexander Gabuev, Nicole Grajewski, and Sergey Vakulenko note that oil prices had fallen through 2025 after OPEC+ decided to increase production, squeezing Russia's revenues. Moscow "did not have much spare capacity to expand its oil production, so it could not earn on volume what it lost on price," the analysts write. The Iran war has reversed that trend overnight.
The revenue math is straightforward: for every $10 increase in the oil barrel price, Russia stands to earn roughly $95 million a day. The Gulf region is also a major supplier of liquefied natural gas, so reduced exports from the region help Russia sell its own LNG, particularly in Asia.
In a remarkable twist, the U.S. Treasury Department last week issued a 30-day license enabling the sale of previously sanctioned Russian crude to India - an emergency measure designed to ease pressure on global markets. The analysts describe this as a direct consequence of the Iran conflict forcing Washington to soften its stance on Russian energy.
The bigger prize, however, may lie further ahead. Should the conflict inflict lasting damage on the Gulf's energy infrastructure, it "could drive up prices for a considerable time and help fill the Kremlin's coffers," the authors argue. European and U.S. policymakers would then face a painful choice: keep tightening sanctions on Russia at mounting economic cost, or back down.
A few weeks of disruption alone would not transform Russia's finances. But the analysts warn that a desperate Iran seeking "to cause as much pain to its neighbors and the global economy as possible" could produce effects on world energy supplies that prove far more enduring.
Also read: The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Triggered the Biggest Energy Shock Since the 1970s.