Russia has repeatedly abandoned its partners at their most desperate moments, issuing strongly worded condemnations while providing no meaningful assistance. That is the central finding of a new Foreign Affairs analysis by three Carnegie scholars, "Hvylya" reports.

Carnegie analysts Alexander Gabuev, Nicole Grajewski, and Sergey Vakulenko trace a pattern stretching across multiple crises. In late 2023, Russia failed to intervene when Azerbaijan launched a brief war against its treaty ally Armenia, allowing Baku to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. A year later, Moscow let rebel forces topple Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus. Within the past year, the United States abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro - described as "Moscow's key partner in Latin America" - with virtually no Russian interference.

The latest case is Iran. When the U.S. and Israel launched their attack in late February, Putin called the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a "cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law." Russia's foreign ministry called for "immediate de-escalation, cessation of hostilities, and resumption of political and diplomatic processes." Neither statement mentioned U.S. President Donald Trump or raised the possibility of Russia coming to Iran's defense.

This passivity is particularly striking given the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty that Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed last year, committing their countries to oppose interference by third parties. Moscow may have remained true to the letter of the treaty, which does not include a mutual defense clause, but it has done little of substance to aid a key partner.

The analysts identify a core constraint: Russia possesses exactly what Iran needs - advanced fighters, air defense systems, and precision munitions - but these are all assets consumed by its own war in Ukraine. Even if Moscow wanted to deliver these systems, it could not do so fast enough. Training Iranian operators on an S-400 air defense system alone would take six to eight months.

All these cases, the analysts write, "lay bare the limitations of Russia's power to shape outcomes around the world." What remains is a narrower objective: cashing in on the chaos.

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