The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has dealt a devastating blow to Tehran's ballistic missile program, with each passing day bringing the destruction of more missile launchers - a development that could reshape Ukraine's access to Western air defense assets, according to an analysis published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), as reported by "Hvylya".
Security columnist Colby Badhwar argues that the degradation of Iran's capabilities will produce "a substantial reduction in demand for the missile defense assets and stockpiles in US Central Command's area of responsibility." In practical terms, that means fewer American interceptors tied up defending Gulf states - and more potentially available for Ukraine.
The analysis also draws a direct parallel between Washington's approach to Tehran and its posture toward Moscow. The Trump administration determined that Iran "was not negotiating in good faith and decided on a kinetic option," Badhwar writes. He argues "it's long past time to realize Vladimir Putin is running the same playbook."
Operation Epic Fury has demonstrated that interceptors are "a tool to buy time, not an end in themselves." Without US and Israeli aircraft actively destroying Iran's missile and drone production infrastructure, allied air defenses would have been quickly exhausted. The same logic, Badhwar contends, applies to Ukraine's war with Russia.
What President Volodymyr Zelensky needs most, the analysis concludes, are not just defensive systems but additional long-range missiles to strike Russia's launch capabilities at their source. Ukraine will never match the air power of the US or Israel, but it can be provided with the offensive tools to reduce the threat before missiles are fired.
"Force is the only language Putin understands, and they should equip Ukraine accordingly," Badhwar writes.
Related: Trump's Iran War Destroys the Old Status Quo - With No Plan for What Comes Next.