Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah, symbolizes a powerful yearning among Iranians for a return to a more prosperous and open era - but he faces two fundamental weaknesses that no amount of Western backing can compensate for, political scientist Vali Nasr has told Bloomberg. He has no organizational presence inside Iran, and his close alliance with Washington and Jerusalem now collides with a wave of nationalist fury.

Pahlavi draws strength from deep historical currents, "Hvylya" reports, citing Nasr's interview on the Mishal Husain Show. Iran has oscillated between two institutions of power since the 1500s: the monarchy and the clergy. "When the clergy are in power and they abuse power, it's the monarchy that essentially people see as the alternate institution," Nasr explained. Under the Islamic Republic's repression, nostalgia for the Shah's era has become enormous.

But enthusiasm is not infrastructure. "He never invested in building a ground game in Iran, an actual organization and movement," Nasr said. "Popularity is not the same thing as having a political program." Supporters who chanted his name on the streets before the war represent sentiment, not a political force capable of seizing a moment of crisis.

The war has compounded the problem. Pahlavi's close alignment with Israel and the United States "runs against the grain of Iranian nationalism" at a moment when Iranians - even regime opponents - are rallying around the defense of their country. Unless he can credibly represent Iran's desire for safety and security, Nasr said, it will be very difficult for him to play a significant role in whatever comes next.

Everything hinges on how the war ends. If the Islamic Republic emerges battered but intact, having withstood two massive militaries, the nationalist argument against Western-aligned alternatives only grows stronger. The historical record of air campaigns forcing regime change offers little encouragement to those betting on Pahlavi's return.

Also read: A Hudson Expert Reveals the Real Goal Behind Trump's "No Plan" Iran Strategy.