The United States risks a strategic defeat not on the battlefield but in the design of its own military institutions, according to a sweeping assessment by retired General David Petraeus and defense analyst Isaac Flanagan. The pair argue that Washington's failure to develop operational concepts for autonomous warfare - while rivals push ahead - could prove "catastrophic for the U.S. military edge."
The warning comes in a major Foreign Affairs essay, as "Hvylya" reports.
Petraeus and Flanagan paint a picture of a military that is buying hardware without understanding how to use it. The Pentagon's Replicator initiative "promised to field thousands of autonomous systems by mid-2025 but delivered only hundreds," they note, and even that program focused on procurement rather than warfighting concepts. The U.S. military has yet to produce joint doctrine for autonomous formations, designate a command to develop one, or stand up a dedicated unmanned systems force.
The authors stress that the deeper challenge is not technological but institutional. The U.S. military's procurement cycles stretch over years, doctrinal reviews take 15 to 20 months, and the culture separates technology development from operational command. Meanwhile, Ukraine updates its drone software every two weeks and iterates hardware every few weeks. China is investing heavily in what it calls "intelligentized warfare," integrating artificial intelligence into command, targeting, and force coordination. Russia is learning through brutal trial and error in Ukraine, "iterating faster than any Western institution."
The central argument is stark: the winners of future wars will not be the side with the most drones but the side that "best solves the command-design problem." Autonomous formations - platoon- or battalion-sized units of air, ground, and maritime systems coordinating at machine speed - will transform combat. The military that masters this will maintain offensive momentum even when electronic jamming severs all communication links. The one that does not, Petraeus and Flanagan warn, will end up with expensive hardware and no idea how to use it. Petraeus has previously argued that America's drone defense already falls short of what modern conflicts demand.
Also read: Petraeus Names the One Theater That Matters More Than All Others Combined.