The war in Iran could push China toward a strategic energy decision Moscow has sought for years - building new overland oil and gas pipelines from Russia - as concerns over the long-term stability of Middle Eastern energy supplies intensify, Carnegie analysts have argued in Foreign Affairs, "Hvylya" reports.
Alexander Gabuev, Nicole Grajewski, and Sergey Vakulenko write that Putin has been trying to persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to launch new overland pipelines for the last decade, "especially since 2022, when Europe started to wind down its energy dependence on Russia." Beijing has resisted, but the current crisis may shift the calculus.
"Significant and lasting damage to the Gulf's energy infrastructure, coupled with a potentially long period of instability in the Middle East, could finally persuade China to launch new overland oil and gas pipelines from Russia," the analysts argue. China, concerned about the long-term reliability of seaborne energy supplies from the Gulf, may discover "an even greater need for Russian oil and gas."
The stakes for Moscow are enormous. Since Europe began reducing its energy dependence on Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has been searching for alternative long-term buyers. China is the obvious candidate, but Beijing has maintained leverage by keeping pipeline commitments limited and diversifying its suppliers.
Higher energy prices would also make Russian oil and gas harder to replace on global markets. European and U.S. policymakers would face what the analysts describe as a tough choice: "continue tightening sanctions pressure on Russia at a mounting economic cost or soften their stance." The Iran war, ironically, may do more to secure Russia's energy future than any diplomatic effort Putin has undertaken.
Also read: Goldman Sachs Calculated How Much the Iran War Will Cost Each Region.