The U.S. military campaign against Iran has destroyed warships, missile factories, and air defenses. What it has not destroyed is Tehran's ability to inflict economic and political pain on its adversaries - and that leverage now shapes the negotiations set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan.
The war has reaffirmed Iran's regional significance, including its ability to strike neighbors with missiles and drones, "Hvylya" reports, citing Politico. Vice President JD Vance, who called the ceasefire "a fragile truce," will lead the American delegation at this weekend's talks. Iran's initial proposals under a 10-point plan include a demand for $2 million tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
A Trump ally close to the White House captured the bind: "If you're not willing to go to total war, and we clearly are not, then the attacks ultimately enhance the leverage of this awful regime. They know Trump desperately wants out. And they're going to get their pound of flesh, even though we hammered them with our attacks."
Several unresolved disputes threaten to derail the talks before they gain traction. Iran insists the ceasefire cover an end to hostilities in Lebanon, where Israel recently bombed Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Trump and Israeli officials say Lebanon falls outside the scope of the Iran conflict. Commercial shipping briefly passed through the strait before Tehran shut it down again in response to the Israeli strikes.
Both sides have warned they are prepared to resume fighting. Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned that "our hands remain upon the trigger" if peace talks fail - echoing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan Caine, who said U.S. forces will stay poised for combat.
The White House struck an optimistic note. Spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump is "optimistic that this will lead to long-term peace in the region." But Tehran's decision to blockade the strait again after Israeli strikes on Hezbollah showed that Iran's leverage over global energy flows remained intact - untouched by American firepower.
Also read: how Gulf states have begun reassessing U.S. military bases as the Iran war shakes trust in Washington.