The trade war truce reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan last October has paused new American tariffs and rolled back Chinese restrictions on rare earths and magnets - but the reprieve remains dangerously fragile, "Hvylya" reports, citing a new Foreign Affairs analysis by Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former NSC director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.

Hass argues that the truce "represents no more than a gentleman's handshake, held together by the two leaders' acceptance of the constraints of economic interdependence and their shared interest in stability over confrontation." The two governments, he writes, "have deferred, not resolved, the underlying tensions that originally drove the relationship toward confrontation."

The Brookings analyst identifies multiple flashpoints that could unravel the agreement overnight - a military incident in the Taiwan Strait, another spy balloon episode, or accusations of Chinese interference in U.S. elections. Many policymakers across the U.S. government, he notes, prefer to view this period as "a temporary stalemate" and are eager to return to full-spectrum great-power competition with China.

The truce was born out of escalation. Early in his second term, Trump raised tariffs to 145 percent in April 2025, only to reverse course after China retaliated with its own tariffs and threatened to withhold rare-earth exports. The administration appeared caught off-guard by Beijing's willingness to weaponize critical mineral and magnet exports - products used in a vast array of modern electronics that American firms source predominantly from China.

According to Hass, the original summit to reaffirm and potentially extend the truce was scheduled for March 31 in Beijing but has been delayed at Trump's request because of the U.S. war in Iran. Postponing the meeting, however, will not significantly affect what gets discussed when the two leaders eventually sit down. The real question, Hass argues, is what each country does during this larger respite to strengthen its competitive position.

Also read: From Greenland to Taiwan: How the US and China Follow the Same Imperial Playbook Without Admitting It.