Four in ten Russians believe that the return of soldiers from Ukraine will bring an increase in crime and social conflict, a Levada Center survey conducted in September 2025 has found - a reflection of deep public anxiety rooted in the country's troubled history with veterans of past wars.
Dara Massicot, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has drawn on the survey data in a new analysis for Foreign Affairs, as "Hvylya" reports.
Russians' fears are shaped by memories of veterans from two previous conflicts. According to Russian veteran advocacy groups, nearly 35 percent of Soviet veterans from the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan showed PTSD symptoms, with possibly even higher rates from the wars in Chechnya. Due to "reintegration failures, poverty, and social collapse in the 1990s," some Afghan War veterans joined organized crime groups, and by the early 2000s, 100,000 veterans were in prison.
Memories of how troubled these veterans - known as "Afghantsy" or "Chechentsy" - became still shape Russian public perceptions. The population is now bracing for the return of the latest generation, likely to be called "Ukraintsy." In this social environment, Massicot writes, "even motivated and law-abiding Russian veterans are likely to encounter public stigma, apathy, and wariness."
The fears are not purely speculative. According to a Novaya Gazeta investigation, roughly 8,000 Russian veterans have already been convicted of crimes since 2022, including violent ones. The Kremlin has attempted to counter these anxieties by branding returning soldiers as a "new elite," but Massicot argues this messaging "is unlikely to overcome Russian civilians' prejudices or their experiences with returnees."
Between 137,000 and 300,000 Russian veterans have already been discharged, with the overall veteran population likely to exceed one million when the war ends.
Also read: Michael Kofman: Russia Is Losing the War of Attrition in Ukraine - Four Years In.