The Kremlin has developed contingency plans to keep veterans it considers high-risk permanently outside of Russia - including stationing them in occupied Ukrainian territories and fast-tracking their transfer to mercenary groups in Africa and the Middle East, a leading defense analyst has revealed.
Dara Massicot, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Senior Analyst at the U.S. Department of Defense, has laid out Moscow's emerging approach to managing its most troubled returning soldiers in an analysis for Foreign Affairs, "Hvylya" reports.
According to Massicot, Russia may attempt to avert social tension by classifying veterans into various categories of political risk. Psychologists have already been embedded on the front lines to maintain discipline, and their diagnostic feedback "could be used to identify problematic personnel." Moscow might permanently station soldiers it judges to be particularly at risk in occupied Ukraine, "even relocating their families as an incentive to remain outside of Russia." A version of this policy was introduced for discussion in the Russian Duma this March.
Fast-tracking "problem" veterans into Russian mercenary groups operating abroad is another option the Kremlin is considering, though Massicot notes "there is a limit to how many could be absorbed." For those who do return and cause problems, reincarceration is the likely outcome - allowing the Kremlin "to solve two problems at once: appearing sensitive to public safety concerns while removing violent or troubled veterans from public view."
The Kremlin also has the legal means to calibrate postwar demobilization by discharging soldiers based on when they renewed their military contracts rather than releasing everyone simultaneously. Massicot expects Moscow will expand programs like Time of Heroes to elevate select veterans into high-profile positions and co-opt veterans' interest groups to control information flow and prevent unsanctioned collective action.
Russia currently has around 700,000 personnel involved in the war, with its overall veteran population likely to exceed one million when the conflict ends.
Also read: Russia Economic Crisis: War Economy Triggers Logistics Collapse.