Israel's security establishment has concluded that Iran's crumbling economy and popular anger have put the regime on an irreversible path to collapse - whether it happens during the current war or further down the road, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
The assessment is built on weeks of accumulated intelligence showing the damage inflicted on Iran's internal security apparatus, according to "Hvylya", citing The Wall Street Journal. Israel has dropped 10,000 munitions on thousands of targets, killed top leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and security chief Ali Larijani, and driven security forces into hiding across the country.
"They are seeing a decaying system before their eyes," said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow at the Washington Institute. "But it would take a lot more attacks to turn the tables."
The advanced technology deployed by Israel and the penetration of Iranian society by its intelligence agents have combined to create what the Journal described as the greatest threat yet to a deeply entrenched regime. Israeli and American leaders said at the outset that the war would create conditions for Iranians to topple their own government. Ultimately, however, it is a task Israel and the U.S. are putting on the Iranian people themselves.
Skeptics warn that decades of military experience show it is difficult if not impossible to dislodge a government from the air. If the regime survives, it could emerge emboldened and more dangerous. "It will be a clear victory for the regime with both predictable and unforeseen circumstances," Nadimi cautioned.
On the streets, the picture remains mixed. With thousands of regime members killed - from senior officials to street-level enforcers - Iranians report a growing sense of disorder. But security forces still maintain control and have threatened to shoot to kill anyone who protests. Many Iranians said rising up now would be suicide, fearing that Washington and Jerusalem will ultimately leave the regime weakened but intact.
Also read: Friedman Explains Why Air Power Alone Will Never Force a Government to Capitulate.