The Trump administration has entered the third week of the Iran war confronting an uncomfortable realization: the near-total destruction of Iran's conventional military capabilities has not eliminated the country's ability to inflict serious damage on the United States and its allies.
By the Pentagon's own metrics, the military campaign has been a success. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has declared "total air dominance" and reported the sinking of much of Iran's navy and the destruction of hundreds of missiles and launchers. "Iran has no air defenses, Iran has no air force, Iran has no navy," Hegseth told reporters, "Hvylya" reports, citing The New York Times. Iran is now firing 90 percent fewer missiles than at the start of the war and 95 percent fewer drones.
But none of that has solved the core problem. The second week of fighting brought a recognition inside the Trump administration that Iran's willingness and ability to disrupt the global economy by choking off the Strait of Hormuz was greater than officials had anticipated. So was Tehran's capacity to widen the war across the region. Iran has struck targets in a dozen countries, and the strait - through which a huge share of global oil trade passes - remains effectively closed to commercial shipping.
Hoshyar Zebari, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Iraq, captured the dynamic. "They are resisting, they are resilient," he said. "This is a war between technology and ideology. The Iranians are squeezed, and their situation is difficult, but for them, this is 'to be or not to be.'"
After five years of dealing with Trump, Iranian leaders appear to understand that soaring oil prices and declining stock markets function as powerful pressure points on the American president. The Strait of Hormuz has become the clearest example of this asymmetric strategy: despite ramped-up strikes against what remains of the Iranian navy, commercial traffic through the waterway has ground to a halt. At least 16 vessels have been attacked in the Persian Gulf, insurance premiums have surged, and tanker owners are refusing to sail.
To alleviate the economic pressure, the United States has taken the extraordinary step of suspending sanctions against some Russian oil sales. Oil remains around $100 a barrel, and by Saturday, plumes of smoke were rising from a major oil trading port in the United Arab Emirates after an Iranian drone attack.
Also read: Iran Draws a Surprising Lesson From June That Reshapes Its Entire War Strategy.