President Donald Trump has entered the third week of the US-led war against Iran caught between two options that his own advisers increasingly acknowledge are both deeply problematic. Continuing the fight means more American casualties, soaring oil prices, and growing fractures within his political base. Pulling back would leave the core objectives - including eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons capability - unachieved.
The scale of the dilemma facing the White House has become clearer as the conflict enters its fifteenth day, "Hvylya" reports, citing a detailed account in The New York Times based on interviews with US and Israeli officials. Thirteen Americans have been killed in action. Over 2,100 people have died since the start of hostilities, most of them in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint for global oil trade - remains effectively shut down. And oil prices are hovering around $100 a barrel.
Trump has wrestled with the question publicly, at times suggesting the war is all but won and at others acknowledging heavy fighting still lies ahead. He told Fox News he would rely on instinct to decide when to get out, saying he would "feel it in my bones." His aides insist he is prepared to see it through. "He made the decision to take the short-term risk to oil prices for the long-term benefit of wiping out the threat that Iran poses to the United States," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Saturday.
The administration's biggest military accomplishments so far have been the destruction of much of Iran's missile arsenal, air defenses, and navy, as well as the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the theocratic regime remains in power, apparently now commanded by the ayatollah's injured son, who has pledged to continue fighting using asymmetric capabilities - cyberattacks, sea mines, and regional missile strikes. The stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium that prompted the war remains inside Iranian territory, within reach of a government more motivated than ever to weaponize it.
Leavitt framed the stakes in historic terms: "If the US can say the Iranian military capability is wiped out, the president knows that will be one of the greatest accomplishments of any president in modern times." She added that "the president is dug in to ensure the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved."
But the war still has to contend with Trump's own timeline. He initially estimated four to six weeks of fighting. The conflict will likely still be raging when he travels to China at the end of March for a summit originally planned around trade and security - now certain to be dominated by the war. According to officials familiar with the conversations, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been advising Trump to keep hitting the Iranians hard, essentially echoing the old Saudi dictum to "cut off the head of the snake."
Also read: "Mowing the Grass" Forever: Trump's Iran Victory Risks Repeating Israel's Gaza Trap.