American and allied interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East have held up significantly better than anonymous US officials suggested to the media, raising the prospect of increased availability for Ukraine in the coming months, "Hvylya" reports, citing an analysis by CEPA security columnist Colby Badhwar.
Aside from Bahrain, interceptor stocks across the coalition have held up well since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. Less than 1% of ballistic missiles fired at the UAE have successfully struck its territory, with the rest either falling short or being shot down. Badhwar notes that "despite media claims from anonymous US officials that they are running out of munitions, there are no specific details about interceptors."
By his estimate, US and allied forces - excluding Israel, which produces its own interceptors - have expended around 1,200 interceptors so far. That figure, while substantial, represents less than one year of American production capacity.
In 2026, Raytheon is expected to produce between 360 and 420 PAC-2 GEM-T missiles and 72 SM-3s. Lockheed Martin's output is projected at 650 to 700 PAC-3 MSEs and 98 THAAD interceptors (Talons). Combined, this gives the US a production base that can replenish what has been used and then some.
For Ukraine, the implications are significant. As the war in Iran degrades Tehran's missile capabilities, demand for interceptors in the US Central Command's area of responsibility will drop. Badhwar argues this will put Washington in "a better position to sell Patriot interceptors to Ukraine via the European-funded Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program."
The prevailing narrative that the US "has dug itself into a hole from which it has no hope of ever escaping" is not supported by the production data, the analysis concludes.
Also read: "Maximum Precision, Negligible Cost": Israel Delivered a Weapon That Could Rewrite Air Defense Economics.