President Trump's apparent belief that the Venezuelan template can be applied to Iran is a dangerous miscalculation, historian Niall Ferguson has warned. The differences between the two operations are fundamental - and the consequences of getting it wrong threaten global energy security.
Ferguson drew the distinction during a GoodFellows discussion at the Hoover Institution, as reported by "Hvylya".
"The Venezuelan analogy doesn't fit too well," Ferguson said. He identified two critical differences. First, ideology: "The Chavista regime had its ideology, but it wasn't remotely like the radical Shia Islam on which the Iranian revolution was based." The degree of fanaticism inside Iran's security apparatus is qualitatively different from anything in Caracas.
Second, geography and economics. "The stakes are much, much higher," Ferguson said. Chaos in Iran "spills over into the Gulf." He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, "the world is going to be on the receiving end of one of the biggest energy shocks of our lifetimes." The potential supply disruption, he noted, "would be greater than anything that occurred at the time of Desert Storm. We're looking at the 1970s."
Finding an Iranian equivalent of Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez - someone willing to sign an instrument of surrender - will be far harder. "Maybe at some point somebody comes out and says, 'I'll sign the instrument of surrender - where do I sign?'" Ferguson said. "But that person is immediately going to be denounced by the surviving remnants of the theocratic regime." He credited Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Caine for warning Trump that Iran "would not be like Venezuela, it would be a great deal more difficult."
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