Donald Trump's outrage at NATO allies for refusing to participate in the war against Iran has so far yielded a single distinct outcome: uniting Europe against him.
Behind closed doors at intimate dinners and on the sidelines of international summits, European leaders and defense officials are increasingly discussing how to navigate the U.S. president's threats to abandon NATO and what contingencies must be activated if he follows through.
A grim consensus is forming that Trump's escalating attacks on Britain, Spain, France, and other nations represent a fundamental fracture in the transatlantic alliance. While a definitive strategy remains elusive, several countries are already exploring expanded defense and security frameworks to bypass a fractured NATO.
"NATO is paralyzed — they can't even have meetings," noted one European diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. An EU official echoed this sentiment, stating, "It's pretty clear NATO is already falling apart," and stressed the urgent need for Europe to bolster its independent defense capabilities rather than waiting for the alliance to completely dissolve.
This stark assessment, based on interviews with 24 ministers, officials, and diplomats, illustrates a dramatic shift in the postwar global order accelerated by Trump's rhetoric. Over recent days, the Trump administration has plunged the 77-year-old military alliance into an unprecedented crisis, vowing to reassess U.S. participation once the Iran conflict concludes, specifically retaliating against European reluctance to join the fight.
Trump has actively fueled the discord, recently dismissing NATO as a "paper tiger" in an interview with The Telegraph. Washington's primary grievance remains the refusal of key European powers, including Spain, the U.K., and France, to allow U.S. forces access to military bases and airspace for operations against Iran. In the month since hostilities began, Trump's frustration has manifested in a barrage of bitter posts on his Truth Social platform.
For European leaders, the immediate priority is shielding their nations from the fallout while preserving crucial security infrastructure.
During a private dinner in Helsinki last week, 10 European leaders convened without aides at the Mannerheim Museum, the historic home of Finland's World War II leader Gustaf Mannerheim. Surrounded by 1940s decor and hunting trophies, leaders from the U.K., Sweden, Finland, Norway, and others held candid talks about the alliance's deteriorating state, universally agreeing that Trump's social media attacks are worsening an already dire situation.
Crucially, they resolved to stand firm against the U.S. president's demands to join the Iranian conflict. "We all want the war to end, but we are not on the same page as the U.S.," revealed an official briefed on the dinner. While Trump demands NATO's assistance, European leaders remain steadfast because they were largely excluded from prior consultations and view the Gulf conflict as completely outside NATO's purview.
Ironically, the crisis is fostering unprecedented continental unity. "These 10 countries have always been really close to each other, but I would say they're even closer now," the official added. This sentiment extends well beyond Northern Europe, encompassing nations like Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands.
The international response to the Iranian war is notable for the solid alignment among European leaders in refusing to deploy military assets to support American and Israeli bombing campaigns. According to one EU diplomat, Trump has simultaneously "destroyed" transatlantic relations and "unified" Europe in opposition to the war. Another senior official noted that Washington must now independently manage the fallout of its decision to strike Iran.
The contrast with the 2003 Iraq invasion is stark. While the U.K. and Poland deployed troops alongside American forces then, the current British and Polish prime ministers have categorically ruled out participation. Spain recently closed its airspace to U.S. jets after initially denying base access, while France implemented a ban on U.S. aircraft carrying military cargo to the Gulf.
"The United States chose not to consult European allies before launching its campaign against Iran. It is not surprising that some European allies are now withholding use of their airbases — or airspace in the French case," stated Fabrice Pothier, CEO of Rasmussen Global and former NATO policy planning director. "Trump is facing the consequences of his unilateralism and for taking Europe for granted. The key now for European allies is to stay united in dealing with the consequences of Trump's ire."
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced the brunt of Trump's personal attacks, with the president repeatedly deriding him as "not Winston Churchill" for refusing to endorse offensive action. Starmer dismissed the rhetoric on Wednesday, stating, "Whatever the pressure on me and others, whatever the noise, I'm going to act in the British national interest."
Although Starmer reaffirmed that NATO remains "the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen" and pledged full U.K. commitment, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves exposed deeper frustrations in London. "I'm angry that Donald Trump has chosen to go to war in the Middle East — a war that there's not a clear plan of how to get out of," she told the BBC.
Despite the friction, Starmer is attempting to demonstrate goodwill, driven by the economic necessity of restoring trade through the Strait of Hormuz and stabilizing oil prices. The U.K. is scheduled to host a virtual summit of 35 nations on Thursday to negotiate diplomatic avenues for restoring freedom of navigation in the region. Every G7 member except the U.S. is expected to attend, alongside smaller states like the Marshall Islands.
Additionally, the U.K. and its allies are exploring potential post-war peacekeeping or policing contributions in the Gulf. European officials also harbor hopes that King Charles III's upcoming state visit to the U.S. might ease diplomatic tensions, given Trump's documented affinity for royalty. Thus far, however, these gestures have failed to placate the president.
Within NATO headquarters, private concerns about the alliance's fracture are compounded by confusion, as Washington has yet to formally request NATO assistance in the Gulf. According to one European diplomat, Secretary General Mark Rutte has "irritated" several allies by strictly refusing to criticize the U.S. and downplaying the internal crisis.
"Any turmoil within the alliance with the U.S. in the epicenter is a cause of embarrassment and concern," a senior NATO diplomat conceded, adding that Rutte's "strategic choice" to maintain a low profile aims to prevent further escalation.
Officials privately acknowledge that relentless U.S. criticism fundamentally weakens NATO, an alliance heavily reliant on the psychological deterrence of Article 5's mutual defense pact. As Trump repeatedly casts doubt on this commitment, NATO's credibility against Russian aggression is severely compromised.
Without a definitive strategy to salvage NATO, European officials are increasingly pursuing alternative defense frameworks. Following the Helsinki dinner, focus shifted to the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a British-led defense coalition of Northern European countries. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen emphasized that while Article 5 remains functional, the JEF offers a rapidly deployable alternative. Officials note Ukraine has already secured an enhanced partnership with the JEF, and Canada may soon follow suit. The Nordic Defence Cooperation (Nordefco) network is also gaining unprecedented strategic importance.
Furthermore, the European Union is stepping into the void. Despite historical hesitation to encroach on NATO's territory, an EU official confirmed the bloc is now "extremely active" in defense planning. Spurred by Trump's hostility, the EU recently authorized €150 billion in loans to boost member states' defense spending. Brussels is also actively evaluating Article 42.7 of the EU treaty — a mutual defense clause — ahead of a new economic security plan slated for this summer. "We need to do things to make sure we're ready," the official emphasized.
Yet, preparing for American withdrawal is vastly different from deterring a hostile military power directly on Europe's borders. For Baltic states facing an existential threat from Moscow, allied unity remains paramount. "For all the allies, at this very moment, it is important to build bridges, not to destroy the bridges," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told POLITICO, warning that public anxiety over NATO's future only serves to expose Western divisions. "This is exactly what Putin wants to see."
Zoya Sheftalovich, Nicholas Vinocur, Victor Jack, Eli Stokols, Felicia Schwartz, Noah Keate, Dan Bloom, Annabelle Dickson, Seb Starcevic, Veronika Melkozerova, Nette Nöstlinger and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report.