Yuriy Romanenko devoted his solo broadcast to a detailed analysis of Andriy Yermak's resignation from the position of Head of the Presidential Office – an event that became the culmination of a prolonged political crisis in Ukrainian governance. "As you know, today they dismissed Yermak. More precisely, he himself wrote a resignation letter, Zelensky immediately accepted it, and all this indicates that very difficult circumstances are pressing on the president," the political analyst began, immediately defining the scale of the problem.
Romanenko quoted a Reuters article that precisely formulated the essence of what is happening: "Zelensky continues to enjoy broad popularity, but rejecting a close ally could help strengthen support domestically and abroad at a moment the president himself called the most difficult for Ukraine." Behind these sparse characterizations, according to the analyst, lie very serious problems in foreign policy that arose after the beginning of the Mindich-gate scandal.
Mindich-gate: Cultural Shock for the West
The corruption scandal became a trigger for a reputational catastrophe for Ukrainian leadership in the eyes of Western partners. Romanenko emphasized the fundamental misunderstanding by the Ukrainian elite of Western realities: "The Office and our elite, and the president himself, did not fully understand that in the West they greatly value reputation, and the reputational capital that is drained instantaneously, as happens in Ukraine, means death for a Western politician, for a Western person. Political death."
The political analyst explained the fundamental difference in perception of corruption scandals: "In the West, there is no such thing as a person rising after such a big, serious blow, which Ukrainian politics abounds in. As a rule, if reputation crumbles, that's it. But in Ukraine, people are used to thinking: so what, they opened a criminal case, they closed a criminal case. And what are they yapping about in the press? Well, it's just so-so. Today they're yapping, tomorrow they'll shut up completely."
This practice of constantly transferring internal rules of the game to the external world played a cruel joke on the Ukrainian leadership. "Western politicians and stakeholders simply don't understand how this can be," Romanenko stated. Mindich-gate spun up a spiral of questions that appear among Western partners, and they need to be answered. Therefore, although Zelensky promised that he and Yermak would be together from beginning to end, the president had to take this step.
Synchronization of Strikes: NABU as an Instrument of Pressure
Romanenko paid special attention to the coordination of NABU's actions with political processes around armistice negotiations. "NABU charges up with jewelry precision precisely in the context of mental fluctuations regarding the fate of the armistice that appear in Zelensky, Yermak and their closest circle," the political analyst noted, emphasizing that such strikes appear not simply in an expanded chain of events, "but appear in synchrony with what not only our Western partners say and do, but even the Russians."
As an example of striking coordination, Romanenko cited the case of the publication on lenta.ru of information about an allegedly ordered Russian passport for SAP head Klymenko – literally on the eve of NABU searches at Yermak's and Vice Prime Minister Kuleba's offices. "I don't believe in such coincidences. Well, that is, I simply don't believe at all," the political analyst categorically stated.
He used a vivid hunting metaphor: "NABU acts like a hunter who lays out red flags on the sides so that the wolf runs in the right direction. And through such flags they fence off the direction of the movement vector: look, there's so-and-so in a strong position, here's a strike at him, that one's in a strong position, here's a strike at him. And consequently, listen to what you're being told."
Romanenko noted that Kyiv is a small city where everyone knows about everyone: "My wife literally heard in one of the supermarkets how officials were talking there last week. Well, literally, she just heard with her own ears how officials were saying: well, that's it, next week it's going to be complete shit, everyone's preparing." That is, they perfectly understood what logic they were in.
Regarding the Mindich case, as the analyst recalled, already at the end of May – beginning of June, all these recordings were circulating in full swing, and everyone was retelling these plots to each other in various variations. "Believe me, these are not all the plots that were shown, there are very many of them there, because all this was written for years, before the start of the full-scale war, and therefore there is a massive amount of information on huge clusters of the political elite," Romanenko warned.
The Key Question: Why Exactly Now?
"The key conversation in all this is why all this is manifesting precisely today," the political analyst posed the question. He noted that NABU can be praised for working and doing their job, just like the SBU officers who document from their side those whom NABU doesn't document. "There's compromising material on some officials, politicians, businessmen, they don't release it because they're from their own sandbox," he explained the mechanism of internal competition among special services.
What pleases Romanenko in this situation is the return to balance: "We're beginning to return to the political process, because for understandable reasons the country flew out of it. And as we see, the political process is necessary to correct positions, because it's impossible without politics and impossible without the electoral process as well."
In the current realities in which Ukraine exists, it's impossible to radically or substantially change the mistakes that were made, that is, to try to correct them, without a political process. "When we said that elections needed to be held – we were also hated for this at the time, saying oh, the fifth column wants elections to be held, how are elections possible now. Well, they delayed, delayed, and as a result came to a situation where everyone and their dog is raising questions about legitimacy," the political analyst reminded about his warnings.
The Problem of Legitimacy as a Trump Card for Opponents
In addition to the Russians and Putin, who did this yesterday and does it regularly, the problem of legitimacy has become one of the features regarding why he doesn't want to negotiate with Zelensky. Although Peskov also stated: "We, although we consider Zelensky illegitimate, but if the stars align like that, we'll go ahead and sign with him."
Romanenko emphasized: "If you do everything in a managed way, simply think ahead, then of course, acting proactively, you would remove issues related to legitimacy, with the ability to throw out all sorts of toxic politicians, toxic units from your ecosystem. What a statesman must always do."
The political analyst formulated the golden rule of state governance: "He must always maintain balance in such a way as to throw out the toxic ones, pull up the capable and effective ones, and thus maintain the effectiveness and stability of the system."
The Trap of a Closed Power Ecosystem
Zelensky, according to Romanenko, made a fundamental mistake when he limited himself to five or six managers and created "a stale ecosystem, impenetrable, very difficult for people who didn't belong to this team to penetrate with any ideas, any solutions."
This led to even his own people in "Servant of the People" beginning to grumble. Romanenko quoted Hetmansev's telling comment: "Correct, although belated, the president's decision to unload the OP. This is the dismissal of Andriy Yermak." The political analyst didn't fail to note: "Hetmansev himself should have been pushed aside long ago and not just pushed aside. I'm just tired of talking about this topic."
But the essence of Hetmansev's comment is different: when he says "although damn belated," internally he wanted to say "Aleksandrovich, let's push him out." That is, there was a conflict between them, and this manifested in words of supposed support for the president.
Arakhamia also made a statement supporting Zelensky's decision. Romanenko described Arakhamia as a many-faced person "who is either removed, or seated, or painted as the leader of internal party opposition in Servant of the People, or a possible signatory of peace agreements to then fade into oblivion."
Personnel Crisis and Professionals' Refusal
Information appeared about the possible appointment of Fedorov as prime minister and Svyrydenko as head of the Presidential Office. Romanenko skeptically assessed these prospects: "In reality, this castling will be exactly in the same vein as the summer government change, because everyone knows perfectly well that Svyrydenko is connected with Yermak, and she was a convenient figure for Yermak, with whose help various decisions could be made on the government, when the office actually managed the government, and the government was non-subjective."
The political analyst expressed his vision of how to act: "In the president's place, I would act like this: it's necessary to return subjectivity to the government and subjectivity to parliament so that they begin to take on decisions, because the trap of 5-6 managers led to the fact that there's no one to appoint, no one wants to go into government, because everyone understands – you're a kamikaze."
The internal discussion with Fedorov about the appointment was very tough. "Fedorov didn't want to, and I think until this moment doesn't want to go for prime minister, because he understands that it's just shit. To become prime minister today is just shit," Romanenko conveyed the potential candidate's mood.
To look for ministers, to look for people in teams, in ministries that are periodically shaken, and only 4 months ago they just rebooted – "in conditions of such tough time pressure, when there's no time and limited resources, today this is quite a task. Therefore, no one from new figures wants to go into government now."
The reasons are clear: "If you're alien there to the team of the closest circle, then you'll be sacrificed, merged and that's it, you're out. Therefore, no one wants to be set up, understanding all the risks."
The Necessity of Expanding the Political Base
Romanenko posed the key question: "From where, from where to get these, from which sleeve to pull out these aces that are necessary to reboot the system as such?" He sees the answer in a radical change of approach: "And this is impossible if you don't engage parliament at full throttle and don't transition to forming a coalition of national salvation, which we've also talked about."
Only in this way can other figures be found, including effective ones, secure parliament's support and overcome the weakness of the mini-majority, "which went from a mono-majority to a mini-majority." In fact, part of the deputies from "Servant of the People" moved away, and situational alliances have to be concluded with factions like OPZZH or "Trust." "This again narrowed the personnel base for maneuvering and generally isn't very good in our realities," the political analyst stated.
To move forward, it's necessary to show broad legitimacy. "And I think that the West will also push for this to happen," Romanenko is confident.
Zelensky's Psychology and the Inevitability of Changes
Romanenko analyzed the president's psychological state: "Zelensky, given all his psychotype and that political model that he formed himself and which gravitates, of course for him this is disgusting. Of course, Yermak is important to him, for him to be constantly nearby as that manager who constantly resolves all matters that exist."
The political analyst doesn't believe that the president can replace Yermak with anyone: "I don't think he can replace him with anyone at all in principle, therefore in this regard I think that the president isn't being disingenuous when he says they'll be together to the end, it's just that now, in order to deflect the blow from Zelensky, Yermak had to be sacrificed."
Even if Yermak operates from the depths going forward – and Romanenko is 100% sure this will be the case – the elite is watching the signals: "It's watching this, from the point of view of that signaling it sees: yes, the construction is beginning to crumble, consequently, everyone begins to think, what will happen if the construction crumbles, what will happen if the construction transforms, what will happen if that group strengthens and this one weakens and so on."
Everyone is already calculating, finding themselves in a situation of calculating their political perspective and making corresponding decisions.
The Inevitability of "Disgraceful Peace"
Romanenko didn't hide his assessment: "It really smells like disgraceful peace. We can recall Surkov, who spoke about the Brest Peace that way. In our case, this will be our Brest Peace. Let's not have any illusions – it will be bad, and it won't satisfy anyone, but it will be, and this is clearly visible."
By his assessment, the countdown is in weeks and months. Even the Russians have fatigue, and even if they drag out the war until the end of winter, as the British press wrote, "this is already the prospect of an ending, here it is clearly visible again."
All international stars are converging: "Trump's star, which doesn't want this conflict to continue until the end of next year, when they have midterm elections." The process of forming not only negotiating positions is underway, where Ukraine maneuvers something with Europe, Europe pursues its goals, Ukraine pursues its goals, "but everyone is already thinking about what the configuration will be after the war."
Europe's Harsh Ultimatum
In the context of anti-corruption processes, Romanenko quoted a statement by Michael McGrath, European Commissioner for Justice in the European Union: "European governments will not support Ukraine's accession to the EU if it cannot prove that it has an effective system for prosecuting crime in the highest echelons of society."
"This is such a stern rebuke, which I generally don't understand why it never correlated in the heads of our power holders," the political analyst expressed bewilderment. He reminded of his postulate: "You are what you depend on. That is, your dependencies determine the limits of your maneuver. And therefore, the more limited you are, the more constrained you are, accordingly, you are more predictable, more understandable, and the weaker position you're in, because pressure can be applied to these positions, the pressure on you can be further intensified, and you'll do what the subject you depend on wants."
The Ukrainian Elite's Illusion About the Possibility of Blackmail
Romanenko expressed bewilderment about the behavior of the ruling elite: "Our elites got the impression that the dependence that appeared in the European Union and the States on Ukraine would allow them to endlessly blackmail both the States and Europe with war." However, it was precisely the reputational component in this game, especially for European politicians who invested very deeply and became attached to the Ukrainian story, that turned out to be critical.
The political analyst recalled his warnings from 2011-2013: "You should have listened to Romanenko: whoever got involved with Ukraine is fucked." In 2013, he said: "Yanukovych is our Herostratus, and Ukraine is a global Herostratus that begins the path to Vilnius, after which the whole planet will blaze, because we don't see what we're doing."
"Such is our karma – whoever gets involved with us always gets it. And this is merciless, regardless of whether friend or foe – whoever got involved with us, you'll definitely get served, you'll suffer, because we find some sadistic pleasure in this," Romanenko stated, adding: "And at the same time we ourselves suffer. There's masochism here too, sadomasochistic, to put it correctly. And at the same time we ourselves get it because of all this throughout our entire unfortunate history."
The Absurdity of Dependence and Arrogance
Romanenko expressed amazement: "It has always amazed me how one can depend, have a dependence of 60% of the budget, which is filled by Western allies, and you behave as if, well, I don't know, Mohammed bin Salman, who has a huge treasury and a functioning state apparatus and a bunch of connections at the global level and much more. And accordingly, you can afford to speak as an equal with equals."
He gave an example of bin Salman's recent visit to Trump: "They tried to needle him there, and he responded very worthily, saying I'm solving state interests and what are you jumping about." But Ukraine doesn't have such a position.
"The position of blackmail is never stable, because when someone understands that they're being blackmailed and that it harms their interests, they will look for a reason to jump off this blackmail," the political analyst emphasized.
Shock in Brussels and Consequences for Support
Romanenko shared information from European corridors: "In Brussels there was a state of shock among many officials and many generals connected with Ukraine by the nature of their activities over recent years. And they are now thinking how this might affect them at all."
From this follows an important conclusion: "The better Ukraine deals with these scandals and the more correctly these topics are drowned while the war hasn't ended, the better this will affect our support during the residual period of the war."
The Metaphor of Drug Addiction: Ukraine as a Dependent Country
One of the brightest and harshest fragments of the broadcast was an extended metaphor in which Romanenko compared the Ukrainian elite and state to drug addicts. Responding to a comment that Americans are dismantling the vertical of power, weakening Ukraine before negotiations, the political analyst gave a harsh answer.
"So that you're not weakened, you shouldn't steal. Point number one. Point number two: so that you're not weakened, you must look at your country as the place where you will live until the end of your life, and your children will live there. Accordingly, if you look at the country this way, you'll think about how to make everything better here, how to build it up, how to improve infrastructure, how to make education normal, how to protect it first of all," the political analyst formulated the basic principles of responsible governance.
Then he posed a rhetorical question: "What person in their right mind would allow the creation of anti-corruption bodies or generally any externally managed bodies that allow you to be controlled? Well, you'd have to be idiots to go for that."
Romanenko proposed a thought experiment: "Imagine that in your family, not even to your relatives, but simply to some external rich people who have some interest regarding you, you give the opportunity to look into your toilet, into your kitchen, to compile reports at any moment. In your apartment there are some people who observe your life and constantly send these reports to these rich relatives. And based on these reports, these rich relatives take certain actions toward you, including sanctions. Would you in your life make such an act in your family? Would you bring in someone else who has such influence over you?"
The answer is obvious for a normal person. "But if you're a drug addict in rehabilitation, or simply in a permanent creative flight, then you'll go for a dose, you'll go for anything," Romanenko explained the Ukrainian elite's behavior.
The Mechanism of State Drug Addiction
"Our entire elite are drug addicts who behaved this way. Because when you want a dose, and what is a dose? It's an injection of financial flows from the IMF, from other structures. So in exchange for the dose and the opportunity to continue stealing everything you see there, but while performing certain functions for these donors who give you the dose and for whose benefit you also steal, because what you steal, you then run and put in their bank or in the pawn shop that belongs to them. Here's approximately how the scheme looks," the political analyst described the mechanism of dependence.
The conclusion is harsh: "Accordingly, why be surprised that the addict found himself in constrained circumstances. Addicts are always in constrained circumstances, someone always controls them. They're controlled by the dealer, they're controlled by the police. They're controlled by the relevant authorities who know that there's an addict in their district, and the addict periodically needs to be given something so that he's under control. Either you stop being an addict and stop hanging all this noodles about grandmothers."
The History of Becoming an Addict
Romanenko explained how the country became an "addict": "It became an addict within the framework of care for grandmothers who suffer so much. For the sake of this fake love for grandmothers, such policy was carried out that people were constantly corrupted, these handouts were thrown, when they introduced some subsidy for one hryvnia, but robbed for 10 hryvnias, because they sawed through the budget like it was the last day."
As a result, "they made the people into addicts, and the state is a drug state, and the elite is a drug elite, because without this feeding it simply can't live. It can't realize itself normally anywhere else. Only through robbery, in the format of a society of hunters and gatherers. Such are the pies."
The Psychology of Power: Shadow on the Wall
Reflecting on the dynamics of power and the possibility of sharp changes, Romanenko quoted a dialogue from "Game of Thrones" between Varys and Tyrion Lannister about the nature of power: "Power belongs to the one who seems strong. Every person casts a shadow on the wall. And so a small person can have a huge shadow, and accordingly, when people believe you have power, even if you don't, they obey you."
The problem of the current government is that avalanche-like processes can begin: "This shadow, which was huge on the wall, suddenly shrinks to some small dwarf, and then disappears. And anyone who has power must always remember this."
The political analyst cited a quote from his favorite series "Boss": "In politics, what matters is not only what actually is, including not only what actually is, but also how it looks. This is the very shadow. And therefore, when it all looks like failure or loss of power, then all the sensitive noses, they already start sniffing around and thinking which way to run."
Zelensky's Resignation Scenario
Answering a question about Zelensky's possible resignation before signing agreements, Romanenko acknowledged the realism of such a scenario: "Probably, this is one of the scenarios, it's lying on the surface. And moreover, for Volodymyr Oleksandrovych it's also an acceptable option to step aside with Yermak, to say that like, I'm tired, I'm leaving. In order to save the Motherland, in order to remove the threat of the war dragging on, we'll clear the field, come on in."
However, this would be a trap for all national politicians, "because it's completely obvious that there's the trap of the Weimar Republic, the first difficult years of existence, when there was hyperinflation, and riots, and left and right radicals clashed in brutal fights, the Beer Hall Putsch of Hitler in 1923 alone is worth something."
Romanenko even suggested a possible personnel maneuver: "In Zelensky's place, I would try to bring in Zaluzhny. If this happened, it would be a trap for Zaluzhny, but I think he understands this perfectly well." There are actually many options for maneuvering even in this difficult situation.
International Law Norms and Force
Responding to a comment that the West and the US should be guided by norms of international law, not what Russia dictates, Romanenko expressed a realistic position: "That's true, but norms of international law are always dictated by force. Any norms are born by force and exist in that force balance as long as the forces that created it exist. When they disappear, new forces appear, then other norms of international law appear, which are modernized, transformed and so on."
"Unfortunately, today the States themselves are torpedoing the norms of international law, which was the basis of their policy before, thanks to Trump," the political analyst stated.
Prospects for Post-War Ukraine
Romanenko shared a forecast regarding the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the war and the financial burden on the budget: "I think we're unlikely to be able to maintain anything more than 250-300 thousand, if at our own expense. And even that, considering the salaries that should be, this will be a serious sum for us."
He quoted Ustenko's assessment that taking into account the needs for the army, payments to veterans, their rehabilitation and all infrastructure for the wounded "we'll have 37 percent redistributed through the budget, that is, for everything we'll have 3 percent left or about 6 billion." This will be the topic of a separate broadcast with Ustenko, where they'll try to calculate all these figures in detail.
Return of Refugees and European Policy
To the question of whether the EU will return Ukrainians immediately to Ukraine, Romanenko gave a pragmatic answer: "Of course it will. Those who bring money and bring revenues to the budget, it won't return at all. And it will do everything so they don't return. Or it will make a program for another year. No, I don't think it will make a program for one year. They'll just send pensioners back here immediately. But children with parents who pay taxes and who show prospects that they'll pay, because they... For example, I know from Germany how they evaluate people, that if you show a good result, they can help you get an education, and you'll fly."
Call for Elite Responsibility
In responses to viewers' questions, Romanenko repeatedly returned to the theme of elite responsibility. To the question of why victory was stolen, he answered: "Because we didn't think, well, I'm talking now about society as a whole, we should have played less with emotions, with resentment, with historical policy and generally brainless policy regarding this Shuster, eternal Shuster." By "Shuster" he means the media flow that covered up theft and idiocy.
"The problem isn't even in theft, but in idiocy, because they steal everywhere, even in the States. But the problem is in idiocy that creates boundless theft that generally reaches the level of some kind of mania. Like serial maniacs act," the political analyst explained.
"Victory was stolen at the moment when people stopped thinking, well the elites at least stopped thinking about the long-term consequences of their actions. And that's it. From this moment no victory is possible. Because it's all the time like some chip that's being carried who knows where, and the ship will never arrive at the right shore," Romanenko summed up.
Forecast: Russia and Its Own 1917
Responding to a Russian viewer's comment that Ukrainians were waiting for 1917 in Russia but will get it in Ukraine, Romanenko gave a harsh answer: "I think, Russian buddy, that Russia will inevitably go through its own 1917, because all this cattle that was driven to the SMO, your so-called, as you call it, without war, having fought for almost more than 4 years, it will need to be somehow channeled. Hundreds of thousands of people who are used to living in lawlessness. And therefore I think incredible adventures await Russia. Therefore, this is actually another reason why they didn't jump off the war for so long."
Conclusion: Systemic Crisis Requires Systemic Solutions
Summing up his analysis, Romanenko stated that Ukraine is at a critical point of political transformation. Yermak's resignation is not just a personnel reshuffle, but a symptom of a deep systemic crisis that has engulfed the entire vertical of power.
Pressure from the West, the inevitability of "disgraceful peace," personnel shortage, reputational losses and the elite's fundamental misunderstanding of Western rules of the game created a perfect storm. The position of blackmail turned out to be unstable, dependence of 60% of the budget on Western donors determined the limits of maneuver, and the illusion of being able to endlessly blackmail partners with war crashed against the reality of reputational politics.
However, in this crisis the political analyst also saw an opportunity for renewal: the return of the political process, restoration of the balance of branches of government, formation of a coalition of national salvation, removal of toxic figures from the governance system. The main thing is that lessons are learned, and statesmen learn to think ahead, act proactively and maintain the system's effectiveness through constant personnel renewal.
Ukraine faces severe trials, but there is no alternative to systemic transformation. Either the country will go through painful but necessary renewal, or it will continue degradation in the format of a "society of hunters and gatherers," where the addict-elite depends on external donors and is incapable of independent development.